Hold’n Court: The HoopGroup Blogs

Bracketbuster weekend didn’t really prove much this year. That being said, a few of the outcomes could potentially have some impact for the NCAA tournament down the stretch. Butler went on the road and got a major win against Davidson. Stephen Curry played for the Wildcats, so this loss pretty much eliminates any hope for them getting an at-large bid. Davidson’s best win this year came at Madison Square Garden against an Alex Ruoff-less West Virginia squad.  Davidson’s RPI is hovering around 60 and that’s not going to cut it. I believe it would be in their best interest to win their conference tournament now.  On the other hand, the win here by Butler elevates them to near lock status. 

The Siena Saints are a very interesting team to watch out for.  They currently have an RPI of 26 and defeated Northern Iowa at home over the weekend.  Unfortunately, the win here doesn’t help much, but a loss would have been highly detrimental.  Their hopes for an at-large bid remain alive.  If Siena wins out, but loses in the MAAC finals will they still get in?  Tough question.  Right now, the answer is only time will tell.  We must wait and see how bubble teams along the way do.  It’s always tough for a commitee to put in a mid-major team with zero quality wins on their resume, over a middle of the pack major conference team who plays tougher competition.  Every expert out there has their opinions on Siena as to whether or not they will get into the tourney with a loss in the MAAC finals.  However, in my opinion, no expert can predict this because they just don’t know who Siena will be going up against.  My advice to Siena:  Win the MAAC tournament.

Saint Mary’s kept their bleak at-large chances alive when they defeated Utah State.  Even if Patty Mills returns in time for the WCC tourney, I just don’t think the Gaels resume is strong enough to put them over the top.  Their best win before Mills was injured was against Providence (a team I don’t think will even make the NCAA tourney).  Utah State fell to 24-3 after this loss and they will be a very interesting case.  They have an eye popping record, but their only quality win came at home against Utah.  I still think they’re in the mix for sure, but another loss before the conference tournament will really hurt their chances.

The loss that really went under the radar this past weekend was Michigan’s overtime loss at Iowa.  This was a game the Wolverines really needed to have.  On the road against the 3 worst teams in the Big Ten, Michigan has gone to overtime with all 3 teams.  After winning their first two against Indiana & Northwestern, this overtime game against Iowa they finally lost.  The loss drops Michigan to 7-8 in the conference with their final 3 games coming at home against Purdue & at Wisconsin and Minnesota.  Wisconsin & Minnesota will need those W’s just as much as Michigan.  They are in trouble and if they want to make the NCAA tourney they probably have to win 2 of their final 3 games.

Creighton is a mid-major team that nobody has been talking about.  They have won 9 consecutive games and have finally reached the summit of the Missouri Valley Conference.  A longshot for an at-large bid, the Blue Jays did however dominate a very solid Dayton team earlier in the year.  I feel like this is a team who can do damage if they get into the tourney.  They’d probably be anywhere from a 10 seed to a 12 seed and could be a Cinderella team come tournament time. 

Last 4 teams in:  BYU, Penn State, Kansas State & Temple

First 4 teams out:  Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Michigan & Virginia Tech

My 4 #1 seeds are:  Pittsburgh, UConn, North Carolina & Oklahoma

The Sooners are not penalized for losing to Kansas due to the fact that Blake Griffin did not play.  As of now, Pittsburgh is the overall #1 seed.

We seem to be saying this every year, but the bubble this year isn’t very good.  It is wide open.  There are a number of average teams out there, and you gotta figure that someone wants to fill those final few spots.  Now is the time for those teams hovering around .500 in league play in major conference to make their move.  It’s not too late.

 Click here to view the updated Schwach Indicator standings

 So, if the season ended today, here is what I believe the Field of 65 would look like:

CLICK HERE TO VIEW MY UPDATED FACTS & BRACKS

Im sure everyone is excited about Monday night. There are some great story lines. First we have the amazing St. Rose team who believe anything is possible against the talented and well coached Neptune team. Then we have the story of Rumson taking on yet another more talented and seemly unbeatable St. Johns Vianney team. Both these games if they don’t have anything else have wonderful stories. We will get to the match ups later. Let’s talk about how these teams got here!

ST. ROSE VS. COLTS NECK - Let the finger pointing begin. With great success comes’ more scrutiny and higher expectations. Now the plays that worked all year are now called bad plays. Forgotten are all the wins during the season. The great coach who made all the right moves and won the championship last year is now being questioned. The great guards who have taken on all challengers are now showing kinks in the armor. The Dream Match- up is gone, the championship gone, now its’ the critics turn to go to work on Colts Neck. One loss at the wrong time and this is what you are left with. When will players and people learn? Did the New York Giants teach us anything?  I will say it again, ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE…. Message delivered loud and clear….courtesy of St. ROSE. Now you ask, how did this happen?

They are a few things about this game that jump out to me. Colts Neck was not ready for the energy of the game. Early in the game, rotating slowly to the ball and allowing St Rose to build on their great comeback against Freeboro. St. Rose great start allowed them to believe Tuesday was real and anything is possible. Colts Neck seemed to be caught off guard. Why do I say this? The Cougars lack of urgency. Colts Neck needed a stimulus package yesterday! A loose ball, a charge, a block shot, something, anything to alert them they were in a dog fight! The stimulus package never came! St Rose buried open shot after open shot. Colts Neck’s lack of defense allowed St. Rose to play free and loose. It allowed Coach Joe Roman to encourage his team to challenge Colts Neck in a game of wills’.  St Rose then smothered the Cougars at the three point line. When Cougar guards penetrated, the St. Rose guards would not allow them to kick the ball out for three point shots, daring them to drive to the rim! The result was Sam Clark rotating and forcing the Colts Neck guards into bad shots. Why were Sam Clarke and other St. Rose players rotating so aggressively? No offensive rebounding by the Colts Neck players!  Every coach tells their guards when you get in the lane “get the ball on the rim”. Colts Neck did not make The Purple Roses pay for such aggressive rotating in the lane. This is called playing the game. These Decisions players must make by themselves. Colts Necks Lack of energy prevented them from getting on the glass. Next the guard play of St Rose was flat out awesome. We’ll start with the play of Ali Sweeney. Her block of DeTulio’s early three point shot sent a message to the Colt Necks guards. Length and size matter! Then as Colts Neck desperately pressed late in the game, there was Sweeney throwing over the smaller Colts Neck Guards to prevent turnovers. Alexx Hall continued to show why next year she may be talked about as one of the better guards in the Shore Conference’s. Fearless is the only way to describe her. Her shooting confidence was scary. The young lady believes every shot is going down these days. Next Gia Russo the forgotten senior, moved to the bench earlier in the season, to give the team energy off the bench. The seasoned senior has been in the wars and understands when to step up. Russo was the rock all night. She made every big play offensively for St Rose. Whenever CN make a mini run, there was Gia making a big shot or pass. It called being a playmaker. Gia was the biggest playmaker of the day. Then KC Chambers the outstanding freshman guard who doesn’t leave her game in the stat page but on the floor. Chambers gave St. Rose a big boost. She had one turnover the entire night. She handled the ball with composure, despite being pressured. Then she played Brooke Hampton Straight up in the 2^nd half and limited her to two pts. Now if you think that is big. Throw in the running down of loose balls, then the seven pts and that makes the two big free throws look like gravy. Colts Neck had cut The Roses lead to 8pts for the first in the 2^nd half. The freshman went to line, knowing everyone is thinking. Here comes the Cougars comeback. Chambers sent a message to Colts Neck and her teammates, calmly sinking both free throws. Chambers is quickly becoming the floor leader St Rose needs. Don’t forget the great coaching move made by Joe Roman, starting Chambers in the 2^nd half. Coaches can be playmakers also. Joe Roman became a playmaker with that move! He also showed his playmaking ability by extending his defense and daring the Colts Neck guards to drive. Then he made sure nobody and I mean nobody leave Lauren Clarke for any reason. Believe me this was more of box in one than a man to man defense. Every time a CN guard drove and couldn’t kick the ball to Clarke. There was Roman clapping his hands in approval. This is called getting your team to understand team defense. Now of course a few offense rebounds and this philosophy is out the window. Colts Neck learned a lesson the hard way yesterday. When you are not shooting well or getting good shots, Offensive rebounds become the great neutralizer. You must get on both boards. First offensive rebounds lead to points; next defensive boards lead to fast break points. If this doesn’t work you must force your opponent into turnovers. Colts Neck did none of these things. Instead they waited for a great run on the offensive end… It never came! The result… St. Rose continues their dream. Colts Neck will make the TOC championship their new goal.

ST JOHNS VIANNEY VS. MANCHESTER- There is only one story line in this game. What is the status of Jackie Kates? Kates was injured in the first quarter of the game and did not return.  Now let’s be honest, SJV is the only team that can overcome this type of injury and win by 30 pts. Missy Repoli continues to show why she is one of the best big game players in the Shore. Katie O’Reilly showed that she is the best 6^th man on the planet. Maybrey continues to show why she is one of the most talented freshmen to ever play in the shore. Linney continues her march towards the POY award. Dawn Karpell continues to show talent is important, but knowing what to do with it is more important. Ok let’s move on. It was another blowout…Manigrasso, Mulvey,Zimmerman,Wilverding. Why am I mentioning these names? They are prime time players on any other team….oh yeah…Manigrasso is a div 1 player…That’s a fact!

NEPTUNE VS. MIDDLESTOWN SOUTH

 Neptune showed they are a well balance and mentality tough team. Why do I say this? They took Middletown’s South’s best shot yesterday. MS would not go away. They were down as much as 22pts in the 4^th quarter and yet had a 3 point shot to cut the lead to 9pts. Neptune did not panic and put the game away with about 2 minutes to go. That’s not before Pakney and McGuinness who is emerging into a future star, did their best to keep it interesting. Pankey no doubt is playing the best basketball of any player in the Shore Conference right now. The girl is just unstoppable. It will be interesting to see how she does in the POY voting.  She doesn’t have the machine working for her so it may be tough. The story of the game however was how deep the Neptune team is and how they play their roles to perfection. Morgan Thompson is a starter for every team in the Shore except one. (I will let you guess) She is coming off the bench to provide bench scoring and great and I mean great defense in Neptune’s’ press. She along with Maruvis are two underrated players in Neptune’s Success. Maruvis will be on one of my All Shore teams. She dominated the paint. With Pankey, hounding Richardson, Neptune needed a big game from her and she delivered. Then Davis who is the hardest worker in the Shore made big plays closing quarters…nobody plays harder. Then there is Allen ready to explode offensively at any time. She has clearly been the missing piece puzzle for Neptune… Finally Richardson who along with Jackie Kates is the Shores top floor general, found a way yesterday. It was passing and getting out in transition for easy baskets. The Neptune coaching staff was totally prepared. Notice the changes after timeouts. It caught MS off guard all night. When MS went zone… No problem! Here comes the set play with baseline screens for Thompson. Pankey starts going off? Here comes the 1-3-1 defense. Coach Brown can flat out coach. He is prepared for anything and his kids believe in him. Put all this together and St Rose and Neptune meet in the semi Final.

RUMSON VS. SOUTHERN- Southern got a taste of late season Rumson defense. Sir George is at his best when preparing his team for big games. Southern had no answers on how to get the ball to Sharkey. The swarming defense of Rumson and the toughness of Kate Miller made quick work of Southern. It was clear Southern was not prepared for this type of defense. Every pass was contested, no open shots, no guard penetration, every player blocked out and no chance for transition points. This was classic George Soulias, Rumson basketball. Now the real story! Kate Miller recieved help from everywhere. Cooper, Kelly, and O’ Brien gave the Bulldogs additional scoring. All three scored in double figures on this night. Julie Kelly is now the official Robin to Kate Millers’ Batman.  Cooper who caused havoc on the defensive end gets better each game. O’Brien seemed more at ease shooting the ball. Then Yacarino was a force of the boards and a seeing I dog, watching Sharkey’s every move. Sharkey at times had four angry Bulldogs around her. This made for a tough night for the Southern star. By The Start of the 4^th quarter she was running on fumes. She had 12pts but they were tough hard nose points. Rumson moves on to meet SJV…How can you call you that a reward!

Now the Match-ups

SJV VS. RUMSON- They say beating a team three times in the same season is difficult! SJV will find out if this is true. Rumson is the only team to give SJV reason to pause or doubt themselves this year. Rumson led for three quarters in game ONE. Superwoman also known as Kate Miller, tired to win the game single handily. Despite all this, Arron Zimmerman became the real hero and Linney put on one of the greatest shooting performances I have ever seen. SJV won in a game for the ages.

Game TWO was a little different. SJV wanted to make a statement. This game was a complete blow out. Kate Miller tried to be the point guard, scorer, and defensive stopper and sell popcorn. It didn’t work. SJV ran and pressured Rumson into rushed jump shots and a quick pace of play. What was the psychological damage of this game? Who can say, Rumson has been up and down all year. Now they are easily playing their best basketball of the year. No team gets better as the year moves on like a George Soulias team…Ask Southern. This year is no different.

       The Talent gap in this game is the size of the Grand Canyon. There is no way Rumson can run up and down with SJV. They also have to understand that holding SJV to 30 pts is unrealistic as well. Think about this for a second. How many players outside of Kate Miller are in the SJV rotation? Interesting right? Or should I say scary! So what is the answer to winning this game? First Kate Miller must have a monster game. SJV will run no less than 8 bodies at her all night. This means George Soulias will have to find time to rest her. In order to do this, the game must be manageable. I say up or down 6 pts. Next someone other than Kate Miller must handle the ball against the SJV pressure. Kate can handle the ball at times, not the entire game. Julie Kelly and Eli Wilbur must help out. Ashley Cooper must be ready to come back and help as well. They can not be afraid to make mistakes. More importantly they must have no turnovers that lead to baskets. Take the five second count, throw the ball into the stands. But no lay-ups and open threes after a turnover. Next and this is huge. Somebody for Rumson must have a career night. No way can Rumson beat this team without something magical happening. George Soulias will make adjustments and figure out a game plan, but that will not be enough. This is a night for the unknown if Rumson wants to pull this off.

 The Rumson program has made a living off of doing more with less. Now they have the ultimate test. SJV has there own issues. Will Jackie Kates’ play? Out of all the players on Dawn’s roster this is the one player that is unique and may not be replaceable. SJV can play different, but they are not the same team without Kates. Maybrey is great player, but is a different style of player. Kates pressures the other teams’ pt guard, she finds teammates in transition, and she finds timely ways to score. This can be a real issue if she does not play. Now before we go feeling sorry for poor ole SJV, remember Maybrey will be playing in one the top 10 college teams in the country in four years. This team just seems to be playing on all cylinders. Dawn has every player buying into their roles and more important focused on winning.

MY PICK:  It may be close as George and Kate Miller are X-Factors. But Dawn is a shrewd coach who will not allow her team to fall asleep at the Wheel. She will remind them of last year, she will remind them of Rumson’s’ history, she will remind them the player of the year award may well be on the line. Then she will remind them of the most important thing…PRIDE. This is what has separated SJV from every other team. SJV MOVES ON TO THE FINAL GAME.

NEPTUNE VS. ST ROSE- This was the game nobody thought we would see this year. St. Rose is playing with golden slippers right now. They have found that thing called chemistry. Joe Roman is making all the right moves. Alexx Hall has gone from role player to prime time player. I even know her name now! More people will be learning her name as well. Gia Russo has become a leader; Sam Clark has been simply GREAT. Her performance Saturday was eye popping. Rotating on defense, making 3 point shots, scoring in the paint, throwing outlet passes, and  helping out against the pressure.  All this after a 12 point, 17 rebound game against Freehold. Mama’s genes are paying off! People the kid is only a freshman. Alex Sweeney has been solid and big scorer when the Rose needs its. It has been a Magical run for St. Rose. Now they get the real test. St Rose will be asked to take care the ball against the best pressure outside of SJV. Their games with SJV will help in this game. Remember pressuring the Colts Necks guards is one thing. Pressuring two guards that Coach Stringer and the Rutgers Staff has already offered scholarships to as sophomores. That’s’ a different animal, both Davis and Richardson can get to the rim, score or dish. Then you have Thompson and Allen just waiting to for you to help, so they can unleash those sweet jump shots. Don’t forget Maruvis scored 20 pts last night. So you just can’t leave her along. St. Rose has a tall order.

Neptune is a deep well coached team. They are also cool customers who will not panic regardless of what is going on. How do I know this? Raritan got out to a big lead against Neptune and lost big. Middletown South played their A game early and then late in their contest with Neptune. No panic just adjustments. Neptune can beat you with shooting, passing, rebounding, defense. They are at their best in the open floor. Remember Richardson is a great decision maker in transition. Next Davis and Allen get out in transition all game. They are also 8 deep Coach Brown is not afraid to go to his bench. With MS down 5 with 5 minutes left in the half Saturday, Davis to the bench with fouls. I thought MS would make a run….WRONG. Neptune went up by 12pts. This is a team with dreams and tomorrow night they will continue chasing theirs’

 This game can go a lot of directions. Joe Roman has been made all the right calls. Now he will have some big decisions. Does he play zone? Can his young Pt Guard KC Chambers handle the pressure that is sure to come? Can his team shoot well early? Will they be ready for the many adjustments Coach Brown makes in a game? Will he start Chambers? Theses are all big decisions. Can they finish quarters strong? No team and that includes SJV finishes quarters better that Neptune. They end all quarters strong.

Neptune will need to be ready for a dog fight. St. Rose has seen the ultimate pressure in SJV. How will Neptune react if the pressure doesn’t create points? Can they play half court basketball and get it done? These questions may come up. Neptune must be ready for the answers!

MY PICK: This game can go so many directions. But only one team can go all those directions and that’ is Neptune. Richardson, Davis and Allen are as good a trio as they come. Their basketball IQ is off the charts. All three are great decision makers and more importantly they are all Playmakers. They can take things into their own hands and make things happen. Coach Brown has his team ready for anything. Monday night will be no different….NEPTUNE WINS and gets to Play SJV in the Final!

QUICK NOTES:

Has anybody noticed that the SCT has become a playground for the 15 u Central jersey hawks team coached Mary Beth Chamber and Eric Kates. The Hawks had 8 current players on 3 different teams playing in the quarter Finals. This is a great example of what a quality AAU team can do when it is run effectively. The Hawks are the blue print for all AAU teams to follow!

How good is Pankey? The hunt for Pankey may be one of the most intense recruiting battles of the spring.

Richardson and Davis- the Rutgers Coaching staff wants both of these great young guards. Coach Stringer loves these kids and pictures them in her 55 press causing havoc in the Big East.

Ocean County is producing more and more good players. The teams also have had a great showing in the SCT. What I find interesting is that many of the great 8^th graders may choose to stay at their local schools. Kelly Hughes for example has not made a decision on school. But any school that gets her immediately becomes much improved. Hughes may be the best open shooter I have seen in years.

Well now the real games begin. I hope everyone read Stumpy’s Blog about Faith Flannery of Keansburg. She is a true inspiration to anyone facing adversity. I think every kid needs to read this story. It is without a doubt the best thing I have read this year. Stump has a beat on Shore Sports like no other. You are really missing out if you don’t go to his site (allshoremedia.com).  I sat with him at the Hoop Group battle of the boardwalk; the guy is totally in tune with Shore sports. He seems to know every detail about each team and every kid. The man knows his business.

   Now let’s talk SHORE CONFENCE TOURNAMENT BASKETBALL. To start, let’s give props Brick Township. Brick went on the road and beat Wall. The win allows Brick to puff out their chest and give ocean county basketball a boast. The victory prevents everyone from seeing Kathryn Campbell on the big stage. Campbell has been great this year. She singled hand tried to will Wall. She had 22 pts, her fouling out was the key moment in the game.  Campbell will no doubt make one of my All Shore teams. Brick will now get Colts Neck.

   RBC downed  Pt Beach team. The beach led most of this game only on to fold late. RBC now gets Pankey and Middleton. Raritan, Ocean, Freehold Twp, Freehold Boro, Jackson Memorial and Toms River North all advanced as well. Now we are down to the best 16 teams in the Shore. Rankings mean nothing unless you play well.

  Winning a Championship is never easy. There are few questions you must answer!

Can you Eliminate distractions? Many players, parents and friends will think it’s a time for their favorite player to shine. They take the focus off the team and put it on an individual. Some players begin to worry about the college scouts, some start thinking about season ending awards. Maybe now your star player  wants to win that PLAYER OF THE YEAR. The role player now wants people to notice how important they are to the team and tries to do more. The seniors who are not playing realize it’s almost over and want a chance to be seen. All these things are major factors in disrupting a team. The biggest distraction of all is an injury or a disciple issue. Trust me someone will get hurt and someone will be disciplined by a coach before this thing is over. Now the key question is will you be able to survive without this player? Distractions can be very tricky. The fewer you have the more focus your team will be and the better your chances.

Can your team handle the pressure? Will your team be able to take criticism from the coach during the heat of the game? And not lost their confidence. Will your team stay clam and not lose their cool when other teams apply pressure? Will the right player take the big shots? Remember, your best player is not always your shot maker when the pressure is on. Will your team stick together when things get a little bumpy?  Will your players stay in their roles when the game gets intense? PRESSURE! Those who apply it and those who handle it, have a big advantage!

Does your Star player perform? This is big! Does your best player show up for the entire tourney? Can they impact the game if they are not scoring? Now here is the big question. Do her teammates view her as the team’s best player? This is very important. Why do you ask?  Players only get the ball to the Star if they trust them. Has your Star been a good teammate all year? If they think the star is self centered… forget it! That last shot or big play is up for grabs. Will they live up to publicity they have been getting all year? Most importantly, can you win without your Star Player?

Do you have playmakers? This is almost always over looked. What is a playmaker? They have great timing. They understand when something big must happen. The coach doesn’t design a play. The playmaker is not afraid to take a risk. They are not afraid to fail. Katie O’Reilly of SJV is a big playmaker. I have seen her step into passing lanes and get big steals for SJV this year. She turned the Christ the King game around with the following plays. A steal and beautiful pass, then a 3 point play on an offensive rebound, and then she capped it off with a block shot. She did all this when SJV needed a play desperately to get them going. My point being, playmakers don’t always show up in the box score.  Do you have a player that can make everyone around her better while staying in the team philosophy? Playmakers are a must. How many do you have? Do you have one? If you have two then you’re team is special. Maybe your coach is a playmaker?  They run a great play out of a time out. Maybe they run that last second play you have been practicing all year. Maybe your coach takes a risk and plays that girl who has not done much during the season. Yes, playmakers come in different shapes and forms! Just remember they are hard to find.

Do you have a Defensive stopper? If you do not have a defensive stopper… forget it. You will not win the SCT this year. I can count no less than 7 teams with one player that can beat you by themselves. If a great player like Hampton gets going, do you have someone to slow her down? If Linney gets on one of her hot streaks, can you cool her off? If Miller decides she is taking over in the 4^th quarter can you close the door on her? If Pankey starts rolling, what is your road block? If Clarke gets in the Zone what do you do? If Sharkey is on a mission, what’s your game plan? What about Richardson, Ryan and Davis? You better have some answers. Remember, there are a lot of players that can send you packing by themselves. One great night by one great player and you’re done! Does anyone one remember Apo three years ago…ok that was sick. It happen then and it can happen again…get your defensive stopper ready.

Is your coach ready for the big time? JT of Colt Neck no doubt is ready. He has a track record to prove it. He made every right move known to man last year in the SCT. This is a battle tested coach. What about your coach? Not everyone has equal talent. For example, can your coach keep your team in a game against SJV? Can your coach give your team a chance to win?  Does your team believe in his game plan? Has your coach identified who your go to player is? Do the players agree? Does your coach have an ego and won’t change? Does he or she change too much and signal panic before the game. Did your coach add those two new sets you’ve been practicing all year, but only planned to use in the SCT or 2^nd half of the season? Did your coach find a way to develop your bench?  Last, but most important, will your team play all out for your coach every night? Meaning, did your team develop mental toughness?

 Who is your team Leader? Now don’t tell me your team leader is your best player. Don’t tell me your team leader is always a starter. Your team leader is the player everyone respects. Your leader makes sure everyone is on the same page. They do it without bulling and more important they can read the climate. They know when to lead and when to shut up.  If you have no leadership, and I don’t care how good you are, you can not win this championship. Leaders step in and take charges. They clap from the bench, pick up fallen teammates, and grab water bottles during time outs. Leaders encourage, motivate, smile, yell, hug, cry and most important give 100% of themselves…..the name Jen Mulvey mean anything to you..

Finally, does your team believe? When your team has its back to the wall will they keep playing? Do they play to the horn or do they play based on the Score. This question can only be answered by each player themselves.

THE MATCH UPS:

Colts Neck vs. Brick- Colts Neck just has too much talent a pride to lose this game. They are not giving away their title. Clarke, De Tulio and Hampton will be ready.

Colts Necks sends a loud Message

St Rose vs. Freehold Boro- This should be a great game. Mayrose may be the difference. St. Rose must guard Mayrose and take good shots. This is a toss up.

  I say St. Rose in a tight one.

Neptune vs. Raritan- On paper this looks like Neptune in a walk. They have speed and great guard play. Now remember this, Raritan has played them all. They fear no one. Ryan and Lentine are becoming a dangerous two headed monster. Tonuzzi is rounding back into form. Neptune will need to come ready to play.

Neptune in a great game….quickness and speed are the difference

Middletown South vs. RBC- There is no better player in the shore right now than Danielle Pankey. She is unstoppable at times. RBC is battle tested and will be ready. Middletown may be a bit overrated due to the win over Rumson. Hobbie and Golden give RBC the edge.

RBC advances despite Pankey.

SJV vs. Jackson (memorial) - This may have been interesting with Evans. Testa and Costello have been doing a nice job. They have a rising program.  Now the problem… Jackson Memorial are playing the Lakers! Coaching only counts for so much!

SJV wins this game

Manchester vs. Ocean- your guess is mind.

Manchester wins

Freehold Township vs. Rumson

Rumson marches toward Southern Match up

Freehold wins

Southern vs. TR North- Southern better be ready.  If they are not ready, it could be an upset in the making.

Southern and Sharkey win!

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HERE’S THE DEAL…

Last weekend we saw the big matchup between #1 Oak Hill and #2 St Patrick. As expected Oak Hill held on to win the game in a much closer than a final score of 73-64. It went right down to the wire, but in the end Oak hill made the big plays down the stretch. We dropped St Patrick to #3 and now have things in place for another one – two match up as Montrose and Oak Hill meet up on March the 6^th. We expect Oak Hill to hold serve and win that one also.

            Both Rice and St Anthony were upset this week as Rice lost to league foe Xaverian and the Friars lost to talented Long Island Lutheran. We have now slipped Lake Clifton up a little more in the polls because they are still undefeated and we know their talented players. They must however finish in Baltimore and then in the Maryland State Tournament strongly or they will pay a high price for stumbling.

            Two upstate New York teams fell from the ranks of the unbeaten as Jamesville Dewitt fell to Christian Brothers of Syracuse and Peekskill fell to rival Poughkeepsie.

The loss to Poughkeepsie sent Peekskill back into the “No Deal” pile. This made room for our newest entry into “The Deal” Imhotep Charter of Philadelphia. They won the AA Philadelphia Public League Championship last week and have only the one blemish to Chester from keeping them currently undefeated.

            The only other team to lose was Paterson Catholic but that was to Rice in a good game so we won’t hold that against them.   

            And now onto the teams in question…Deal… or No Deal?

Bubble, bubble, bubble. At this point in this season, most teams are bubbles. Here is a closer look at 5 bubble teams profiles where I will show you who these teams remaining games are against, what they need to do to get in to the NCAA tournament, and my opinion on whether or not they will be successful in doing so.  And, of course, I conclude my summary with my updated FACTS & BRACKS.  So, let’s begin…

1)  Georgetown  (13-10, 4-8)     RPI:  37   SOS:  1

       Key W’s: Memphis, @ UConn, Syracuse

       Bad L’s:  @ Seton Hall, Cincinnati (2x’s)

       Remaining Games:

       @South Fla,Marquette,Louisville,@Nova,@St.John’s,Depaul

       What they must do:  The Hoyas 2 losses to Cincinnati (especially the home loss) are bad.  I understand Cincy is playing well now, but Gtown should not be losing to them at home.  The loss to the Hall isn’t good because when you’re in a tough league such as the Big East, it is imperative that you capitalize against all bottom feeder teams.  Those 2 L’s could very well be the difference between a tournament bid and the NIT.  The Hoyas must take care of business against SoFla, the Johnnie’s & Depaul.  MUST.  Then, to guarantee themselves a place in the tournament, they need to take 2 out of 3 against Marquette, Louisville & @ Nova.  Winning 1 of 3 will put Gtown at 8-10 in the Big East, in which case they’ll probably need two Big East tourney wins to solidify a bid.

       Brad’s Prognosis:  Georgetown has been very inconsistent the past 6 weeks.  They fell down by 16 points @ Syracuse midway through the 2nd half and looked like they were dead.  However, they came back.  Played great.  Showed some heart and looked like a team that was switching into a new gear.  They unfortunately failed to complete the comeback as they lost in OT.  Was the last 10 minutes of this game the Georgetown team we will see the rest of the way? I think it might be.  I do think that the Hoyas have a shot to go 5-1 down the stretch.  However, I don’t think they will.  I see them going 4-2 and finishing at 17-12, 8-10 in the league.  They will most likely be playing on Tuesday in the Big East tournament against either Rutgers, St. John’s or South Florida.  A Wednesday matchup will likely put them up against the likes of Providence or West Virginia.  Win that and they can punch their ticket.  They have played the toughest schedule in the nation and can still make the NCAA tournament finishing under .500 in league play. 

I compare this Georgetown team to last year’s Arizona squad.  Arizona finished at 18-14, 8-10 in Pac-10 play.  They finished with an RPI of 37 and a SOS of 2.  Almost identical to where Gtown is at.  They had a few key wins, but nothing better than what Georgetown has.  They lost in the 2nd rd of their conference tournament.  They finished 4-6 over their final 10 games.  They finished behind Arizona State in the standings (who didn’t make it).  Oh, they also lost to Arizona State twice!

2)  Michigan (15-10, 6-7)    RPI: 53    SOS:  14 

     Key W’s:  *UCLA, Duke, Illinois

     Bad L’s:  @ Penn State (this is their worst loss)

     Remaining Games:  Minnesota, @ Iowa, Purdue, @ Wisconsin, @ Minnesota

     What they must do:  Michigan needs to win 3 of the next 5 games.  A win in the 1st round of the Big Ten tourney would then seal the deal for them.       

     Brad’s Prognosis:  I believe the Wolverines will finish 3-2 down the stretch (with their 3 W’s coming in their next 3 games).  If they do this, they will finish at 18-10, 9-9 in the Big Ten and with the quality W’s that they have I believe it will be enough to get them a tourney bid.

3)  Miami (FL)   (14-9, 4-7)   RPI: 47    SOS: 11

     Key W’s:  @ Kentucky, @ Boston College, Wake Forest

     Bad L’s:  @ NC State

     Remaining Games:  @Florida State, Boston College, @Virginia, @Ga Tech, NC State

     What they must do:  The ‘Canes put themselves in a big hole.  That being said, their previous 3 games were against Wake, Duke & Carolina and they managed to win 1 of those 3 which I said they needed to do 2 weeks ago.  Now, the goal here is to do everything possible to finish at .500 in conference play.  This is very doable for Miami.  They need to get a split in their next 2 games against Fla St & BC.  After that they gotta take care of business against ACC bottom feeders.  Do that, and they’re 18-10, 8-8 in the ACC and can punch their ticket.   Not losing in the 1st rd of the ACC tourney will firmly put them in.

    Brad’s Prognosis:  Miami is a good basketball team and I do believe a tourney team.  The schedule lightens up for them the last 5 games of the season and now is the time for them to take care of business.  I do believe they will finish 4-1 down the stretch and get to .500 in the ACC and put themselves in a great position for an NCAA bid.

4)  Kansas State (16-8, 6-5)   RPI:  76    SOS: 78

     Key W’s:  Missouri, @ Texas

     Bad L’s:  @ Nebraska

     Remaining Games:NC Central, @Iowa St,@Missouri, Nebraska,@Okla State, Colorado

     What they must do:  First of all, the Wildcats don’t have a great RPI.  Playing NC CENTRAL will hurt them in a big way.  Just not smart scheduling.  NC Central has an RPI of 340.  340!  Kansas State must go 4-2 down the stretch with wins over NC Central, Iowa State, Nebraska & Colorado.  Even though that will put them at 20-10, 9-7, I don’t believe that guarantees them a bid.  A win @ Missouri would get it done.  But, finishing at 9-7 I really don’t think will be good enough.  Their RPI will be pretty bad for a power conference team.  A loss in the 1st round of the Big 12 tourney will leave them on the outside looking in I can bet that.

    Brad’s Prognosis:  They should find out how to cancel that game against NC Central.  They scheduled it because it will give them that extra W, which could put them at 20 wins.  However, 20 wins guarantees nothing.  Just ask Syracuse.  Their resume is not impressive enough.  This will be a very interesting case because I think they’ll go 4-2 down the stretch.

5)  Providence (16-9, 8-5)  RPI: 66   SOS: 51

     Key Wins:  Syracuse, Cincinnati (2X’s)

     Bad L’s:  Northeastern

     Remaining Games: 

     @Louisville,Notre Dame,Pittsburgh,@Rutgers,@Villanova

     What they must do:  I believe the Friars will need to win 3 of their last 5 games in order to obtain a bid.  Their RPI is not very good, and although they don’t have many bad losses, they also don’t have many quality wins.  Finishing at 10-8 in the Big East will not guarantee them a spot.  Winning 2 of their last 5 and then losing on Wednesday in the Big East tournament will ultimately knock these Friars out.

    Brad’s Prognosis:  I think Providence will lose at Louisville.  They will then come home to a critical (almost must win) matchup against Notre Dame.  I will give them a W there.  I then see them losing to Pitt, squeaking one out against Rutgers, but then falling at Villanova.  This will put them at 18-11, 10-8 in the Big East.  They probably won’t have to be play on Tuesday of the Big East tourney and will most likely get an 8 seed.  This will then probably pair them up against either Georgetown, Notre Dame or Cincinnati on Day 2.  This will be a must win game.  I don’t think they will prevail and I believe the Friars will be left OUT of the NCAA tournament.

Who’s in?  Who’s out?  Who knows…

My last 4 teams in are: BYU, Cincinnati, San Diego State & Providence

My first 4 teams out are: USC, Miami (FL), Georgetown & Michigan

Click here to see the latest Schwach Indicator Standings

CLICK HERE TO SEE MY UPDATED FACTS & BRACKS

Now the real fun begins. The Shore seeding is sure to cause debates. The beauty of this whole thing is unlike football. The winners are decided on the floor. Seeding are really about bragging rights and nothing more.  You must perform in order to win the Shore championship. Before I get to the seeding, I want to discuss a few topics. Danielle Pankey and Neptune. .

Remember these names Clarke, Miller, Linney and now Pankey.  Why do I want you to remember these names? One of these four players will be my pick for Shore Conference Player of the Year. Nothing will change my mind about this! What Pankey is doing right now is mind blowing. She has lifted her team to amazing heights. How good is Pankey playing?  She had three 30pt games and beat Rumson at the buzzer all in one week. Her performance against Freehold was a tour de force. She almost outscored the entire Freehold Boro team.  I have one question. Why has it taken Pankey so long to get on peoples’ radar?  Besides being one of the top two defenders in the Shore Conference, a great offensive rebounder with the ability to hit stand still three point shots. Pankey can make big plays despite being double and triple teamed.  She has to be in the conversation for player of the year. No player has been more dominant down the stretch. More importantly she is doing it against the very best. She has created an all out war in the div 1 circles.  She will have a major decision to make. FDU for instance has three Shore Conference Players on their roster already, Mt St Mary’s has been there from the start, Stoney Brook has a great tradition and her parents are from New York. My favorite of course is Colgate. I hope some of my recruiting days have rubbed off on my daughter. The List of schools continues to grow.  The thing to remember is that Danielle has done it the old fashion way…she has earned it.

Now on to Neptune… this is a sticky topic. Remember Neptune has changed a great deal in one year. How? They seem to be more of a team. Allen has given them that third scorer every good team needs. Gone are the silly days of padding their stats or concerns with personal goals.  They understand winning and improving go hand and hand. Mental toughness comes along with this… Neptune has this now! Now the sticky part!! You book a game… You must play it! The only way a game should be cancelled is for safety or NJSIAA rules. If players are hurt or your team is tired, that is part of the grueling season. I watched SJV lose to the 6^th best team in the country by 2 pts after playing 4 games in 8 days. Then play Rumson two nights later.  Top programs do this. I don’t know why the St. Rose /Neptune game was cancelled, but I hope it was for the right reasons.  Neptune must honor games they book. Now also remember, Neptune is not the only school that has been guilty of this. It happens in other sports as well. This is something that must stop.

The seeding for the Shore Conference tourney will be rather easy for me. I think how you are playing now is just as important as your record. Wins in my book are more important than a quality loss. A lost is a lost! Lose to a team early and beat them late has to carry a lot of weight. Why you ask? It means you are getting better. Losing a star player or an important piece to your puzzle is also very important. (Jackson Memorial) What is your record without that player? Comparing scores mean nothing. Why you ask? Some coaches like to run up scores and some coaches do not, this is a fact of life. Head to Head wins only count if you continue to win throughout the season. Road wins are big, a home lost really hurts.

HERE ARE MY SEEDS 1-10.

1.       SJV

2.       COLTS NECK

3.       NEPTUNE

4.       SOUTHERN

5.       RUMSON

6.       ST.ROSE

7.       MANCHESTER

8.       MIDDLETOWN SOUTH

9.       OCEAN

10.   FREEHOLD BORO

Now how did I arrive at my top ten seeds? The first 3 I believe are easy. SJV is 2pts away from away from being called the best team in the country. Colts Neck gets the 2^nd seed because of two factors, quality wins and more important they are defending champs. Neptune is three because of a great year. They have beaten everyone that’s been put in front of them. Southern is 4^th because of Rumson’s’ failing as of late. Southern did lose to Rumson early in the season. Yet Southern is getting better every week. They revenged their losses to TRN and Jackson. They beat Middletown South late in the season when Rumson lost to South. For these reasons Southern and Sharkey must be the 4^th seed. Rumson gets my 5^th spot because they beat St. Rose as recent as two weeks ago, St Rose is 6^th they do not have a quality win, but they have beaten everyone except the elite teams on their schedule. The Neptune cancellation really hurt St. Roses’ chance to make a big move. Manchester gets the 7^th spot, despite Pankey’s and Middletown South’s great run, there have been some bad losses along the way. So we reward them for their great play of late. Yet we kept them 8th. Ocean gets the 9^th spot because of the wins over Freehold Boro. Freehold Boro is 10^th for one reason, Mayrose.

PLAYER RANKING

PLAYER OF THE YEAR

1.       CLARKE

2.       LINNEY/PANKEY

3.       MILLER

4.       SHARKEY

FRESHMAN

1. MAYBREY (SJV)/CLARK (ST. ROSE)

2. CHAMBERS (ST. ROSE)

4. JAZMINE DAVIS (MONMOUTH REGIONAL)

HERE’S THE DEAL

This week our top team the entire season took it on the chin, not once but twice. First, they fell to St Patrick in their annual battle of two of New Jersey’s top teams. St Patrick is now the hottest team in the area and turned, what was supposed to be a classic battle, into a twenty-five point rout. Benedict’s then went to the west coast and was convincingly defeated by the nation’s # 1 team in Mater Dei of California. The Grey Bees must now get back on track as they near the end of their season.  

            Six other teams in our “Deal” lost but with none lower than Chester at the # 17 spot so no one dropped out of the “Top 26”. Speaking of Chester they were nipped by an excellently coached Camden Catholic squad and tumbled to 23^rd. The toughest league in the country saw their top three teams all fall as Gonzaga fell to Bishop O’Connell for the second time, O’Connell fell to Bishop McNamara for the second time, and McNamara fell to Good Counsel. The final sort of these DC Catholic League teams will, most likely, be determined in the league play-offs. Also stumbling was Christ the King who fell to league foe Xaverian. Lastly Pennsbury fell to St Patrick in an excellent game. Although they lost they continue to gain our respect and actually moved up a couple of spots.

            And now onto the teams in question…Deal… or No Deal?

Former Lake Clifton (MD) standout Antoine Allen has just committed to the University of Miami. Allen is an athletic, scoring combo guard currently playing for Mississippi Elite. He was named a Top 20 All Star at Hoop Group Elite last summer and was highly recruited at the high major level while playing for Anthony Lewis’ Cecil Kirk AAU Program. He is a terrific leader on the court and a great kid off the court as well.

Allen’s commitment to Miami is interesting because he is often compared to former Cecil Kirk standout and current Miami guard Jack McClinton.  If Allen’s career is like McClinton’s then we know the Hurricanes will be very pleased.  Congratulations to Antoine on his decision.