March 9, 2009
Facts & Bracks: 3-9-09
We are now only six days away from Selection Sunday. So much can still change. But, the regular season is now over for everybody and conference tournaments are all about to be underway. Northwestern missed a golden opportunity at Ohio State on Sunday. A win against the Buckeyes would have put Northwestern one win from clinching their first ever NCAA tournament bid. Now, they will need multiple wins in the Big Ten tournament.
Big things that happened over the weekend:
*Creighton loses in the semifinals of the Missouri Valley tournament to Illinois State. Wow. Can the Blue Jays get an at-large bid now? They still have a shot, but this is a crippling loss that could cost them a bid. Now, they must wait and hold their breath because there is nothing left that they can do. I currently have them as a 12 seed.
*We all thought Maryland was going to bounce back and win at Virginia to finish at .500 in ACC play, right? Well, they didn’t. A very damaging loss to the Terps tournament hopes. They now finish at 7-9 in the league and will need to make a serious run in the ACC tournament. Maryland has been such an inconsistent team this year. They’ve showed they can beat the best (North Carolina), but also lose to a team at home from the MEAC (Morgan State). I felt as if a win over Virginia would have put the Terps in pretty solid shape, but oh well.
*After Penn State defeated Illinois earlier in the week I stated that they were not a lock, but pretty close to it. Well, they lost at Iowa on Saturday to finish at 10-8 in the Big Ten. They are still in OK shape, but a loss in the 1st round of the Big Ten tourney may end their dreams. I still like their chances.
*I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the SEC is bad, the Big 12 is highly overrated, the Pac-10 is just okay, the Big Ten has depth but is ugly to watch, the ACC is exciting and real good, and the Big East is rough and tough and also real good. So the conference rankings are: 1) Big East, 2) ACC, 3) Big Ten, 4) Big 12, 5) Pac-10, 6) SEC (maybe).
*Michigan did exactly what they needed to do by winning at Minnesota on Saturday. They finish Big Ten play at 9-9 and have a very solid resume. They were in need of a solid conference road win and they finally got it. As long as Michigan doesn’t lose to Iowa in the 1st round of the Big Ten tourney, I believe the Wolverines will be dancing.
*Auburn kept their tournament hopes alive with a win over LSU. Again, this is a weak conference, but no team who has finished at 10-6 in the SEC has ever not been able to get an at-large bid. The Tigers still have plenty of work to do and still need to make a run in the SEC tourney.
*Virginia Tech lost at Florida State to finish at 7-9 in the ACC. A deep tourney run is now needed for the Hokies.
*Providence has been bumped from the field. It didn’t help that Rhode Island and Cincinnati both lost over the weekend because now the Friars only real two key wins are against Syracuse & Pittsburgh. That’s good and all, but it’s not enough. They must defeat the winner of the Cincy/Depaul matchup and then probably have to beat Louisville on Thursday to lock up a bid. If they falter against Louisville, Sunday may not be a very fun day for the Friars. I wouldn’t count them out though because they are experienced, deep & will put it all on the line. The bid is theirs for the taking if they want it.
*Tennessee loses at home to Alabama…the disaster known as the SEC continues…
*Davidson lost to the College of Charleston in the semifinals of the SoCon tournament. Fortunately, they finished in 1st place in their conference and will now try and make a run in the NIT. Their poor RPI & poor record against the RPI Top 50 will keep them out of the Big Dance.
*The Mountain West Conference tournament will loom large in figuring out which teams will get at-large bids. Right now, Utah & BYU appear to be locks. UNLV, New Mexico & San Diego State all need to make some noise. San Diego State plays UNLV in round 1. They’ve beaten them twice. They will need to beat them a 3rd time. The tourney is at UNLV though. The loser of this game can pretty much kiss their tournament hopes goodbye.
*Are you a bubble team? Well, you’re definitely pulling for Butler to beat Cleveland State. You also want Gonzaga to beat St. Mary’s (although the Gaels may be in anyway). Just in case, you want Siena to beat Niagara. And, I guess pull for Utah State to win their conference tournament as well.
*The following teams (who are currently not in) can still obtain an at-large bid by making a run in their conference tournaments: San Diego State, South Carolina, Florida, Kansas State, Auburn, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Northwestern, Providence, Temple, Rhode Island, Kentucky, Georgetown, USC, Notre Dame, Washington State, Tulsa, Cincinnati, Nebraska
*Teams who clinched an Automatic Bid: Cornell, Radford, East Tennessee State, Northern Iowa, Morehead State
My last 4 teams in the Bracks: Creighton, UNLV, New Mexico, Saint Mary’s (CA)
My first 4 teams out of the Bracks: San Diego State, Florida, South Carolina, Kansas State
Jordan said,
March 9, 2009 @ 9:23 am
As we discussed, we have two different. I have South Carolina and San Diego State and you have UNLV and Penn State. I think SDSU has to be ahead of UNLV right now being that they beat them twice this year, but that’ll be an elimination game when they meet in the MWC tournament.
Is that true about no 10-6 SEC team ever missing the Dance? I’m sure that’ll change this year with how weak that conference is this year. I still have South Carolina in and Auburn fifth out, but both of them will have to win some games this week to feel comfortable.
Penn State disappointed me with that loss at Iowa. The Nittany Lions could’ve wrapped things up with an 11th Big Ten win but now they’ll have to avoid an upset loss to Indiana to get in.