We are now into the final week of February and if there’s one thing we’ve learned it’s that the bubble is very weak. It’s about time for these so called fringe teams to start winning and separating themselves from the pack. It’s hard enough to figure out which 65 teams should get in this year, so yeah, let’s just expand the tournament to 96 teams. Yes, that’s my sarcasm speaking. Remember to click on my FACTS & BRACKS link here or at the bottom of this blog to view my projections.
The “Let’s Goooo” Team of the Week (Team who impressed the most this week): Kentucky. Many thought the Wildcats were bound to lose a game this week as they had to travel to Starkville to take on Mississippi State and Nashville to go up against the Commodores of Vanderbilt. Well, Kentucky (26-1, 11-1 SEC) ran into some trouble as it took them overtime to beat Mississippi State and a missed runner in the lane at the buzzer by Vanderbilt which would have forced overtime. The Wildcats held the Commodores to shooting a measley 2-20 from 3, yet still only won the game by just 2 points. Nonetheless, Kentucky won both of these road matchups in two tough environments and improved their record to 26-1 overall. They currently remain as a projected #1 seed in my latest Facts & Bracks. There only appears to be one game left on Kentucky’s regular season schedule that they may lose and that is their game at Tennessee on Saturday.
The “What Are We Doing?” Team of the Week (Team who hurt itself the most this past week): Charlotte. The 49ers were a team that was riding high less than two weeks ago. Now, they find themselves in danger of not being invited to the Big Dance. If you’re going to lose to other NCAA contendors in the league (i.e. Dayton, Xavier) then I have no problem with that. If you’re going to lose games to non contendors, such as they did this week against Duquesne, I will notice it but it’s not the end of the world…unless, of course, that loss came on your home turf, which it did. That is just plain unacceptable. We obviously know why this happend. They played Duquesne at home on Wednesday, but knew in the back of their minds that their big game was on Saturday against Xavier. So, clearly, they overlooked the Dukes…and then lost to the Musketeers anyway! Charlotte is not a team who can afford to do this. Their final two regular season games are at Rhode Island and at home against Richmond. Big games. However, before those two games they play St. Joe’s and at George Washington…remember 49ers, you play ST. JOE’S AND GW first, so don’t disregard them or you will get beat and badly crush your hopes for an NCAA bid. Charlotte has dropped out of my field of 65, but since the bubble is so bad as it usually is, one solid week can put them right back in it. The 49ers RPI saw the biggest drop of any team this week falling from 41 to 55.
The “Middie Who’s Gettin’ Giddy” Team of the Week (mid-major team who is on the rise): Northern Iowa. The Panthers got arguably the best Bracketbuster win on Friday with their victory over another mid-major bubble team Old Dominion. Northern Iowa (24-3, 14-2 MVC) nearly led wire to wire and showed the country that they are for real and can win even without their star big man, Jordan Eglseder, who didn’t play for the second consecutive game due to a suspension caused by a DWI. I questioned the Panthers resume before this game and didn’t really see them as a true lock for an at-large bid. They had beaten high-major bottom dwellers which is good for a mid major team, but not overly impressive when trying to obtain an at-large bid. This win against ODU was important for Northern Iowa because ODU is knocking on the door for an at-large bid. Old Dominion won at Georgetown earlier in the year and proved that they could win away from the Constant Convocation Center. The win put Northern Iowa’s RPI into the Top 20. Watch out for Northern Iowa come tournament time…when a team has guys with eccentric last names like Farokhmanesh, Eglseder, Ahelegbe & O’Rear you know you want no part of them.
The “Power Who’s Goin’ Sour” Team of the Week (high major team on the decline): Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons were coming off a stretch of 4 consecutive wins before last week began. Three of those four games were at home and the one game that was on the road was at a struggling Virginia team and it took them overtime to win that one. The two games they played this last week, of course, were on the road. They lost at Virginia Tech, in a game where Wake led most of the way, and they then dropped one at last place NC State. Some may say that it was no big deal because both games were on the road, but I believe that these game were, in fact, critical for Wake. If they would have won both of these games they would have taken hold of 2nd place in the ACC, would have been just one game behind Duke and could have quite possibly been in the argument for a 2 seed in this weeks Facts & Bracks. Instead, they fell back to the middle of the pack in the ACC and currently have 5 losses in a down year for the league. The time has come for the nation to know if Wake Forest (18-7, 8-5 ACC) should be mentioned as one of the heavy hitters who can make a deep tourney run, or if they’re like last year, a team bounced in the 1st round as a 4 seed by Cleveland State. I don’t believe the latter will happen again this year, but I am still waiting to find out how good this team really is. I guess we will find out in the ACC tournament.
The “Opportunity Knocked But Nobody Answered” Teams of the Week (these teams had critical losses at inopportune times):
Siena. The Saints (22-6, 15-1 MAAC) had a critical game at Butler on Saturday which may have catapulted them to an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament had they lost in the MAAC finals, but they failed to capitalize. Butler extended their nation leading win streak to 17 games, and they did so without starter Willie Veasley (10.0 ppg), who didn’t play due to a sprained knee. It is now pretty clear that the Saints need to win the MAAC tournament in order to get into the NCAA tournament. Siena has zero quality wins on their resume and now have no more opportunities to pick one up. If Siena is fortunate enough to win the MAAC tourney, they still could end up getting a solid seed. Remember, last year, they didn’t have any enormous wins either and were still able to get a 9 seed in the NCAA tourney. I’m not saying that’s going to happen again because last year they finished with an RPI of 18 and so far this year they’re currently in the 30’s, but a top 11 seed is still obtainable.
Old Dominion: In my opinion, the Monarchs could have all but wrapped up an at-large bid with a win at Northern Iowa. Winning on the road in my book counts for a lot because it shows that a team can keep it’s composure in a harsh environment. They failed to do so, but losing to the Panthers does not kill them and doesn’t end their hopes by any means. ODU (21-8, 13-3 CAA) still has that victory at Georgetown which is monumental. However, ODU has put themselves in a position where they may need to make the CAA tournament championship game in order to get a real good look for a bid.
William & Mary: The Tribe really didn’t have anything to gain from their Bracketbuster game @ Iona. They really couldn’t afford a loss though. Not only did W&M lose, but they were dismantled by the Gaels. It was a bad weekend for the CAA with ODU and W&M losing and doesn’t help their case for being a multiple bid league. William & Mary’s RPI did not take a huge hit however, as they are still hovering around the 50 mark. Their non conference wins vs Richmond, @ Maryland and @ Wake Forest are still big for them which is why they are not completely out of the discussion. It’s looking like William & Mary (18-8, 11-5 CAA), as well, will need to make the CAA tournament finals in order to receive a serious look from the selection committee.
South Florida: A disastrous loss at home on Saturday for the Bulls (16-10, 6-8 Big East) to St. John’s. I classify this as an “opportunity” game because every game South Florida plays they have plenty to gain. The loss puts them 2 games under .500 in the Big East with no wiggle room to spare now. They must win the rest of their conference games now. And, yes, that includes their game at Villanova too. The loss to St. John’s may have been the nail in the coffin for South Florida. That being said, who would’ve thought before the season that South Florida would be disappointed to be 6-8 in the league? Probably no one.
The “Yes We’re a State, We Want Some More Respect and We’re the Lobos so Please, Stop With All the Low-Blows” Team of the Week: There’s only one team who this award can go to and of course that’s the New Mexico Lobos (25-3, 11-2 MWC) who sport a nifty top 10 RPI and play in the tough Mountain West Conference. Nobody knows that much about Coach Steve Alford’s Lobos because we just don’t get to see them on television enough. Well, this team has a superb overall record and many believe it’s nothing that special since they’re beating up on bad teams. But, that’s where they’re wrong because they’re not beating up on bad teams. New Mexico has wins vs California, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Dayton, BYU, San Diego State and at UNLV. This resume is a lot better than a good amount of high majors. The Lobos have been tested and are deserving of a very good NCAA tournament seed should they finish out the season strong. New Mexico has a major test coming up on Saturday at conference for BYU. BYU has won 34 of their last 35 conference home games. So, if the Lobos can manufacture a W at Brigham Young, I would be very impressed…as should you!
The “Conference Crew Who’s Feelin’ Mighty Blue and Slowly Changin’ my View” League of the Weekend: The CAA. The Colonial Athletic Association went a combined 3-9 in Bracketbuster play this weekend. Ouch. Their conference RPI now sits at 12. What bothered me the most was that the top 4 teams in this league (Old Dominion, William & Mary, Northeastern & George Mason) all lost. Before this weekend, I thought this conference had a very good chance to be a multiple bid league for the NCAA tournament. Now? I’m really not so sure. William & Mary and Old Dominion are the two teams with the best non conference resumes in the CAA and really could have boosted their causes with W’s. The scary part about this weekend is that when the Selection Committee is trying to figure out the last few teams who should get into the NCAA tournament and they arrive at a CAA team, will they refer back to the dismal Bracketbuster weekend they had or will they merely just see it as a minor blip on the radar? The bottom line is that this is a weekend the Colonial Athletic Association will want to forget…however, I don’t believe this will be something the Selection Committee will bypass.
The “Biggie Who’s Gettin’ Jiggy” Team of the Week (high major squad on the rise): UConn. The Huskies underachieving season was about to be all but over in disappointing fashion…that is before their game at Villanova last week. UConn went into the Wachovia Center, shocked the Wildcats and brought their conference record to 5-8 in the Big East. They really have no room for error anymore after the Huskies inauspicious start in the 1st 12 games of Big East play. That’s why their game at Rutgers on Saturday was so important for them. One slip up to a lower tier Big East opponent would have been devastating for UConn. Rutgers was a hot team and had won 4 of their last 5 Big East games and playing at a sold out RAC is no easy task. But, the Huskies were up for the challenge and easily took care of the Scarlet Knights to improve their conference record to 6-8. Even more important is their RPI went from 61 to 45 in the last week. UConn is back in the thick of things for an at-large bid and have two huge opportunity games this week at home against West Virginia and Louisville. Winning both of these games will surely put them in the field in next week’s Facts & Bracks. It’s vital that this team finishes conference play at the .500 mark or better to give them the best opportunity for an NCAA bid. So, the Huskies are “jiggy” right now, but can they remain “jiggy?” Or was this last week of victories just a fraud? I believe this team is for real…the question is, do they want to be?
Most Intriguing Major Conference Game this Week? Villanova @ Syracuse on Saturday. This game may not only determine which of these teams gets the top seed in the Big East Tournament, but it also may play a large role in deciding who gets that coveted #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Right now, Syracuse has the upper hand, but a win on the road by the Wildcats could change a lot. Villanova has proved this year that they can win in tough environments…just ask Marquette, Louisville and West Virginia. Plus, the Orange only two losses on the year came at home at the Carrier Dome. I believe that this will be a great game that comes down to the wire. Both of these teams are pretty much locked in for a double bye in the Big East Tourney and I have a feeling that we will see these two teams play each other again there…and perhaps again in the NCAA’s.
Most Intriguing Non-Major Conference Game this Week? New Mexico @ BYU on Saturday. The Mountain West Conference is the 7th best conference in the country this year, and these two teams will battle it out for 1st place this game. New Mexico has the more impressive resume, but the Cougars of BYU do have the ever so important home court advantage. New Mexico and BYU are a combined 49-6 this year against Division 1 opponents. New Mexico already beat BYU at home this year…is it now BYU’s turn to return the favor?
An NCAA Bid in Sight? If the Cornell Big Red beat Princeton and Penn this weekend they will be the first team this year to officially clinch an NCAA tournament berth.
My last 4 teams in? UAB, Old Dominion, Dayton, St. Mary’s (CA)
My first 4 teams out? San Diego State, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Connecticut
The clock is starting to tick on some of these bubble teams, but since the bubble is so down this year ANYONE who can put together a string of victories down the stretch will have a good chance at breaking away from the rest of the pack. The regular season is quickly coming to an end…as are many of these bubble teams chances.
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