Hold’n Court: The HoopGroup Blogs

When the brackets were released and it was all said and done I ended up getting 64 out of 65 teams correct in the NCAA field.  Could I have done better?  Sure.  But, I am still not in full agreement that Virginia Tech (my last team in) should have been left out over Florida (my first team out).  Florida getting a 10 seed is a bit ridiculous.  I understand why Virginia Tech may have been left out and if you had been reading my blogs the last couple months you may remember this snippet from one of them…

The “Wait, We scheduled who?” team of the week (team who will regret scheduling a certain someone at the end of the season)  Virginia Tech.  The Hokies are a stellar 18-4 overall and have a solid 5-3 record in the ACC.  Their 4 losses this year came to Temple (in the Philly Hoop Group Classic), @ North Carolina, @ Florida State and @ Miami (FL).  I don’t consider any of these losses as being really bad.  They took care of business at home this last week by defeating UNC and Clemson in Blacksburg.  But why, you ask, does this team remain on the bubble?  The answer is…UMBC (RPI of 340) and NC-Central (RPI of 347).  I can’t completely knock them for scheduling UMBC because nobody knew they were going to be this bad and they did make the NCAA tournament two years ago, but playing against NC-Central is just mind boggling.  This team won a total of 6 Division 1 games the last 2 years combined.  So, coaches, I tell you this when scheduling before the season…if you think your team has ANY chance of making the NCAA tournament do not schedule teams you KNOW will be at the bottom of the RPI.  You are better off playing a Non-D1 opponent.  If you think you are an NIT team at best, then yes, schedule the NC-Central’s of the world and rack up those W’s.  I am not knocking Virginia Tech because many teams in the nation schedule poorly, I am merely using them as an example.  We shall see if the RPI is the reason they miss out of the NCAA’s.  My advice to the Hokies:  Keep winning in the ACC and you won’t have to worry.     

 

Virginia Tech ended up finishing 10-6 in the ACC with wins over Wake Forest, Clemson and at Georgia Tech.  It’s funny how a team that finishes 7-9 in a conference (Georgia Tech) gets in over a team that finishes 10-6.  I know there’s unbalanced scheduling and all, but the fact that Virginia Tech won AT Georgia Tech a little over a week ago should have held some bearing.  It comes down to Va Tech not having the better overall quality wins than Florida and the fact that Virginia Tech’s non conference schedule was brutal.  I’m not happy that I was incorrect, but I can’t complain too much.  It’s funny because at 10pm on Saturday night I had Florida in my field as my last team in.  Then, when Utah State lost in their championship game I made them an at-large team and removed Florida.  If Utah State would have won I probably would have been perfect.  Oh well.

I thought that West Virginia should have been the #1 seed over Duke.  Better resume, better conference, better eye test team.

While I’m not entirely happy with my performance overall, for the 3rd straight year I defeated Joe Lunardi from ESPN (who had just 27 exact seeds).

So, as I said before, I got 64 out of 65 correct…34 teams seeds exact….21 teams seeds off by 1….6 teams seeds off by 2….1 teams seed off by 3….and 2 teams seeds off by 4

Fun Facts

The Utah State “Aggies” will face the Texas A&M “Aggies”

The Clemson “Tigers” will face the Missouri “Tigers”

West Virginia assistant coach Billy Hahn will be playing in Buffalo…the same place his son Matt, assistant coach at Vermont, will be playing…however, they are not in the same region

West Virginia will be playing Morgan State…West Virginia is located in “Morgantown”

Pittsburgh is facing Oakland…Oakland is the neighborhood in which Pitt is located.  The Pitt student section is known as the “Oakland Zoo.”

Syracuse will face Vermont in round 1.  Remember when Vermont beat Cuse in the 1st round a few years ago?  Yeah, it won’t happen again.

Kris Joseph (Syracuse) will be facing his brother Maurice Joseph (Vermont) in round 1.

The Midwest Region is absolutely stacked:  Kansas, Ohio State, Georgetown, Maryland, Michigan State, Tennessee?  Wow.  How bout making the regions a little more even committee?

Texas is an 8 seed.  Two months ago they were the #1 team in the country.

If Sam Houston State happens to shock the world and win 2 games, they will be playing in the regionals in Houston.

Is it possible that we can have an all Big East Final Four?  It is not likely, but it can happen.  Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova and Georgetown would make for one heck of a Final Four.  Georgetown’s road is clearly the most difficult.

Time to make our picks!

Click here to view my post selection sunday Facts & Bracks results

      

Here are the results of all 83 bracketologists…I finished tied for 9th overall

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix_2010.htm

 

We have finally reached Selection Sunday.  Here are my final projections before the Selection Show.   

 

CLICK HERE TO VIEW MY FINAL FACTS & BRACKS

My last 4 teams in:  Minnesota, Utah State, UTEP, Virginia Tech

My first 4 teams out:  Florida, Illinois, Mississippi State, Rhode Island

Here are my latest Facts & Bracks updated through noon on Saturday morning.  There are still a couple spots to be claimed today.  Rhode Island, Minnesota, Illinois, Mississippi State and Washington could all use wins today to potentially fill in those last at large spots.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW MY FACTS & BRACKS

Here are my updated Facts & Bracks as of Friday morning.  There are now just two days left before Selection Sunday and a lot of movement can still take place. 

Bubble Games to Keep an eye on today…(teams that NEED to win are in bold)

Illinois/Wisconsin

Ole Miss/Tennessee

San Diego State/New Mexico

Minnesota/Michigan State

Rhode Island/Saint Louis

Dayton/Xavier

Florida/Mississippi State

Tulsa/UTEP

Louisiana Tech/Utah State

Stanford/Washington

 

CLICK HERE TO VIEW MY FACTS & BRACKS UPDATED at NOON on Friday 3-12-10

We are now less than one week away from Selection Sunday.  We are now one day removed from the Academy Awards.  So, I decided to do a little Facts & Bracks Oscars style for today.  I lined up all of the movies that were up for best picture and put the proper teams into each category.  I will start off by giving the “Most Inspirational Performance” Award followed by all of the “Best Picture” Awards.  I would have been able to finish this a lot quicker if there were only 5 nominees (like there used to be) for best picture as opposed to the ridiculous number of 10…but hey, what can you do?  A special shout out goes to my younger brother and aspiring film writer/director, Charlie Wachtel, for giving me the idea for this blog.   

Remember to click here or anywhere you see “Facts & Bracks” to view my entire NCAA tournament projections for today.

 

And now, onto the awards…

 

Most Inspirational Performance - Austin Freeman (Georgetown) - Just a few days after being diagnosed with diabetes, John Thompson III shocked Hoya Nation by not only playing the Junior, but inserting him in the starting lineup.  That was all Georgetown fans needed to see to be inspired, but it didn’t end there.  Austin Freeman went on to be Georgetown’s leading scorer with 24 points in an all out romp over Cincinnati on Saturday.  Hoya fans were inspired, yet also relieved to see him back to playing like he’s an All Big East 2nd team player.  Georgetown needs him because without Free they are just average.  If you follow Georgetown and Austin Freeman the rest of the way this year and don’t feel inspired then there is something wrong with you.  In fact, you would be like the Tin Man from the Wizard of Oz because you’d have no heart.  I’m not so sure if Georgetown is more than a Sweet 16 team this year, but the whole country should be rooting for this team, or at the very least Mr. Freeman, down the stretch and watch in “Awe” (stin Freeman).

 

And now, onto the nominees for Best Picture…

 

“Avatar” (teams feeling blue)

 

Illinois (18-13, 10-8 Big Ten) - A few weeks back I had blogged that even though the Illini were off to a strong start in conference play, they would begin to collapse because the last eight games in conference play were almost all against the top tier teams in the league.  Going along with the script, Illinois has currently lost 5 of their last 6 games and are not feeling so good about themselves.  They are so fortunate that they beat Michigan State and won @ Wisconsin a few weeks back because that is what is keeping them alive for an NCAA bid.  They also have very solid non conference wins this year at Clemson and at home against Vanderbilt.  Their RPI is hovering around 75 right now and that clearly is not a good thing.  Illinois remains alive because they have done more good than bad.  Having 13 losses is bad, but winning at Wisconsin is great because the Badgers never lose at home.  Wisconsin’s loss to Illinois at home was their only home loss on the year.  That’s impressive.  However, I advise Illinois to beat Wisconsin again in their 1st Big Ten tourney game to stay above water. 

Kansas State (23-6, 11-5 Big 12) - The Wildcats had an amazing opportunity in front of them to try and become that fourth #1 seed for the NCAA tournament.  However, with losses to Kansas and Iowa State, yes Iowa State, this week they are pretty much out of the conversation for that 1 seed.  There’s nothing wrong with losing to Kansas, but losing to Iowa State AT HOME just means that this team was having a real letdown following the Kansas loss and had a poor mindset heading into this game.  Kansas State has had a magnificent year and hopefully, for their sake, the slide won’t continue into the Big 12 tournament.

Georgia Tech (18-11, 7-9 ACC) - The Yellow Jackets just can’t seem to seal the deal and are not feeling very good about themselves with that under .500 conference record.  Ga Tech has key wins this year over Siena, Duke, Clemson and Wake Forest, but they have now lost 5 of their last 7 games and are in danger of getting an NCAA bid.  They are the 7 seed in the ACC tournament and get to play North Carolina in round 1.  Yes, UNC is struggling, but by no means is that a walkover win for the Yellow Jackets.  Their RPI is in the low to mid 40’s and have a top 20 strength of schedule.  Two wins in the ACC tourney will lock them up a bid.  One win?  Right now, I think that would get the job done too because of how bad the bubble is.  Any other year and this team would be saying their last rights.

 

“The Blind Side” (teams who had a rough start, but are now coming on strong)

 

Maryland (22-7, 13-3 ACC) - The Terrapins struggles began early this season way back when they played in Hawaii in the Maui Invitational.  Their only win in Maui happened to be against a non-division 1 opponent in Chaminade.  Maryland continued their shakiness about a month later when they lost at home to William & Mary.  I truly thought that this team was not an NCAA caliber team as I’m sure did many.  Then, all of a sudden, conference play began and the Terps came out of nowhere to tie Duke for 1st place in the regular season.  This has definitely been a down year for the ACC, but I won’t shed a negative light on what Maryland has accomplished this year…going from down, out, without a chance all the way to being a true winner.

Louisville (20-11, 11-7 Big East) - The Cardinals had a rough start to the season, but their troubles began at home in their own building.  Louisville lost to Western Carolina and Charlotte…apparently they had some sort of bug playing against teams from the state of North Carolina.  Rick Pitino’s Cardinals didn’t hit their stride in the season until really the middle of February.  They got smoked at St. John’s and many people questioned whether or not Louisville was an NCAA tournament team.  People stopped asking this question when they followed up their loss to the Johnnies with a monster victory at Syracuse.  They then went on to beat Syracuse again at home and all but clinched their spot in the Big Dance.  If you beat Syracuse once it shouldn’t be overlooked, but beating them twice?  Well, it just proves that Louisville can play with anybody in the country.

Notre Dame (21-10, 10-8 Big East) - Way back in mid-december the Fighting Irish had a horrendous loss to Loyola Marymount at home.  That loss doesn’t look as bad as it once did as Loyola Marymount has also beaten USC and Gonzaga.  Even still, Notre Dame is a team that doesn’t lose too often at home…and even moreso against non power conference teams.  So, Notre Dame kept trekking along the season, not really impressing anybody aside from their win at home over West Virginia.  Next thing you know, their best player, Luke Harangody, is injured and out for a while.  After ‘Gody’s injury, Notre Dame lost at home to St. John’s and on the road at Louisville to drop to 6-8 in the Big East.  Season over, right?  Wrong.  The Irish finished out the year by winning their final 4 Big East games against Pittsburgh, at Georgetown, home against UConn and at Marquette.  Very impressive because they’re doing this without a 1st team all league player.  Notre Dame has now put themselves solidly in the conversation for an NCAA bid.

 

“District 9″ (teams “out of this world”)

 

Syracuse (28-3, 15-3 Big East) - The Syracuse Orange are truly 1 of 3 teams who are “out of this world.”  They are the #1 seed in the #1 conference in the country.  If they didn’t have to play Louisville this year they’d only have 1 loss.  Hey, remember when they lost to Lemoyne College at home back in the preseason?  Yeah, I don’t either.  With a dynamic duo of Wesley Johnson and sharpshooter Andy Rautins (Leo’s son), and a prolific frontcourt of Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson, the Orange might be the most balanced team in all of America.

Kansas (29-2, 15-1 Big 12) - At this point in the season, the Jayhawks might be the odds on favorite to win the national title.  They have an experienced point guard in Sherron Collins, a dominant big man in Cole Aldrich and a nice mix of young talent in Xavier Henry, Tyshawn Taylor and the Morris twins.  Collins and Aldrich both have won a national championship and that right now is why Kansas may have the slight edge over Syracuse…the experience factor.  To me, trying to figure out which team is better is just a waste of time because they both have so few flaws.

Kentucky (29-2, 14-2 SEC) - The Wildcats might be the most exciting team to watch.  When you have 3 freshmen on your team who will be playing in the NBA soon, what’s not to like?  Kentucky is led by another great duo in young sensation John Wall and super big Demarcus Cousins.  The experience factor may hinder this team as well as they really don’t have many guys with much NCAA tournament pedigree.  Patrick Patterson had a rough 1st two years at Kentucky and this is an entirely different situation that he’s ever been a part of.  The bottom line is that they are dangerous, but maybe the most likely of these 3 to an early exit in the NCAA tournament. 

 

“An Education” (teams who need to be taught something)

 

Seton Hall (18-11, 9-9 Big East) - The Pirates kept their slim NCAA hopes alive by finishing out Big East play at the .500 water mark.  They are the 10 seed in the Big East tourney and my darkhorse pick to make a solid run.  So, Seton Hall, I will tell you what you need to do (and are capable of doing) to get an at-large bid.  First of all, you need to take care of business against the 15 seed in Providence.  Lose this game and you can forget about it.  Your 2nd round opponent will be Notre Dame.  A very winnable game.  Win that game and you will start to hear whispers.  But, you’re not out of the woods yet.  Your next opponent will be the #2 seed Pittsburgh.  Of any of the top 4 seeds to play I believe this is the one you’d want to play the most.  I know you had some success against Syracuse and West Virginia earlier in conference play, but just try and take a glance at how Providence nearly pulled off the upset at Pitt.  I believe it can be done.  If you happen to beat Pittsburgh, I want to say that your ticket will be punched.  Three more wins is what it takes.  Good luck.

Florida (20-11, 9-7 SEC) - If I am the Gators right now I am a tad worried.  They lost 3 in a row to end the year, but they are still in OK shape.  Florida, what you need to do is beat Auburn in round 1 of the SEC tournament for sure.  You then get Mississippi State.  I really believe if you win that game you will punch your ticket for the Big Dance.  You guys have wins over Florida State, Michigan State & Tennessee and that’s better than almost all bubbles teams.  Still, I don’t recommend losing early while everyone else can gain on you. 

South Florida (19-11, 9-9 Big East) - Who would have thought the Bulls would have such a good year?  Nobody.  They actually have a shot at an NCAA bid.  South Florida…you guys play Depaul in round 1 of the Big East tourney.  Please don’t sleep on them or the NIT is where you will be.  Your next opponent will be Georgetown…a team you already beat at their place this year.  You will have to win this game as well.  Doing this would put you guys in serious conversation for a bid.  Your 3rd round opponent would be Syracuse.  You won’t beat them…but…if somehow you did?  Well, you guys would LOCK up that bid because that would be incredible.

 

“The Hurt Locker” (teams affected by injuries)

 

Purdue (26-4, 14-4 Big Ten) - Without a doubt, the Boilermakers are the team that will be most affected by an injury.  Purdue lost their 2nd leading scorer, Robbie Hummel, to an injury a couple of weeks ago and went from a potential team that could win the national championship to a team that many will question if they can get passed the Sweet 16 now.

Notre Dame - Luke Harangody’s injury actually had the reverse effect on the Fighting Irish.  They went from being a prime NIT team all the way to being solidly in the field of 65.  They are not a lock yet, but have put themselves in great position after finishing out the year with four straight victories.  

Texas (23-8, 9-7 Big 12) - Back during the week of January 11th, the Longhorns were the #1 team in the nation.  Do you even remember that?  Texas lost sophomore guard Verez Ward back in the 1st couple weeks of the season.  Ward was averaging nearly 9.0 ppg.  They were still able to win without him though.  Then, mid February came around and Texas lost their starting point guard Dogus Balbay.  Balbay wasn’t putting up all star numbers, but he was one of the Longhorns better defenders and had been an intrical part to Texas’ success.  Since the middle of January, Texas has been on a major slide heading into conference tournament play.  Will we ever see the old Longhorns again from earlier in the season?

 

“Inglourious Basterds” (teams that could play a spoiler role)

 

Utah State (24-6, 14-2 WAC) - First of all, if the Aggies want to be a spoiler team in the NCAA tournament they will most likely need to get to at least their conference tourney finals, but will probably need to win it.  If they do this, I am warning potential teams seeded 5 through 7…watch out.  Utah State has a team consisting of upperclassmen which = experience.  They lead the nation in 3pt shooting % and rank in the top 5 in the nation in FT% as well.  I am not guaranteeing a 1st round victory by the Aggies because everything depends on getting the right matchup, but if the matchups are in their favor, I can definitely see this team as a potential Sweet 16 candidate.

UTEP (24-5, 15-1 C-USA) - The Miners are another team that may have to win their conference tournament to get in to the NCAA’s, but they are a legitimate threat should this happen.  They are currently 9-3 away from home and have 3 wins over top 50 opponents.  They are led by two juniors in Randy Culpepper, who is averaging over 18 ppg, and Louisville transfer Derrick Caracter who’s averaging 14ppg and 8rpg.  UTEP is in one of the upper tier mid major conferences and have had ample games against the big boys which they will face in the Big Dance.  Keep an eye out for UTEP.

Kent State (22-8, 13-3 MAC) - The Golden Flashes have really not been noticed by many even though they sport an RPI in the top 45.  They have a solid win this year over UAB and probably would have given South Florida a game had they not been missing their best player.  Kent State has won 13 of their last 14 games and if they win their conference tournament it would be 16 of 17.  If I were a power conference team, I would be afraid to play any team that’s on a ridiculous win streak like the Golden Flashes.  If they win their conference tournament they should be in the range of getting an 11 or 12 seed in the NCAA tournament.

 

“Precious” (key wins for certain teams to get an NCAA bid)

 

Virginia Tech (23-7, 10-6 ACC) - The Hokies win at Georgia Tech, in my opinion, locked them in for a bid in the NCAA tournament.  They now have 3 solid wins on their resume (the others being Wake Forest and Clemson), and they also have a win that’s looking a lot better of late and that’s their win over Seton Hall.  Va Tech has gotten their RPI back into the Top 50 and even a loss in their 1st game in the ACC tournament shouldn’t affect the NCAA status of the Hokies.

Louisville (20-11, 11-7 Big East) - The Cardinals second win against Syracuse at home on Saturday solidified their spot in this years NCAA tournament.  The bottom line with them is, if you beat a projected #1 NCAA tournament seed twice in a season and finish over .500 in the Big East, then it’s not even a question as to if you’re gonna go “dancing” or not.  Louisville can now play freely without having the burden of a loss costing them a shot at the Big Dance.

Wake Forest (19-9, 9-7 ACC)  - The Demon Deacons finally punched their ticket to the Big Dance with their victory over Clemson on Sunday.  This team has so much talent and I feel as if they are capable of making a deep run in March, but remember what happened to them last year?  They were a 4 seed and got knocked out in round 1 to Cleveland State.  Well, for now, Wake can at the very least sleep well tonight knowing that they will be in the field of 65.

 

“A Serious Man” (top coach of the year candidates)

 

Jim Boeheim (Syracuse) - Coach Boeheim is probably the front runner for this award as he has taken a Syracuse team that was projected to finish 6th in the Big East all the way to a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament and a #1 overall ranking in the last week of the regular season.

Jamie Dixon (Pittsburgh) - The Pitt Panthers are another team that really came out of nowhere.  Many people believed that this was going to be a down year for Dixon and his Panthers, but if you take a look at Jamie Dixon’s resume, he’s never had a “down” year.  Pittsburgh finished 2nd in the Big East, aruguably the toughest conference in the nation.

Frank Martin (Kansas State) - The fact that the Wildcats were in consideration for a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament the last week of the regular season automatically merits Frank Martin as a candidate for this award.  Many felt that when Mike Beasley left 2 seasons ago that Kansas State would conform back to being a mediocre power conference team.  This was not the case as Frank Martin has proved he can continue to recruit and has turned K-State into a force to be reckoned with.

Jon Calipari (Kentucky) - In Calipari’s 1st season as Kentucky’s head coach, all he’s done is led them to a 29-2 record in the regular season.  Yes, he does have some of the best freshmen in the country in John Wall and Demarcus Cousins, but a big part of coaching is being able to recruit and one thing Coach Cal can do for sure is bring in the top players in the country year in and year out.

Steve Alford (New Mexico) - Some people may have forgotten about Steve Alford when he left Iowa a few years ago en route to New Mexico, but many won’t forget the magical season the New Mexico Lobos are having.  They finished regular season play with an outstanding 28-3 mark in the tough Mountain West Conference.  Coach Alford proved that his Lobos are for real with non conference wins against Texas A&M and California, as well as an in-conference sweep of perennial MWC power BYU.

Bo Ryan (Wisconsin) - It seems like this guy should be in the conversation for coach of the year every year because he can flat out X and O.  He’s definitely very admirable because he doesn’t always have the best talent (in fact, his talent doesn’t even compare to that of Kentucky), but he always manages to maximize his teams potential and get the most out of every player.

Scott Drew (Baylor) - Coach Drew has led the Bears to an astonishing 23-6 regular season, especially considering where this program was 6 or 7 years ago.  Clearly, Scott Drew was the correct candidate for their head coaching position way back when this program was in complete and utter turmoil.  I still feel as if Baylor has gone under the radar, but Drew should be recognized for his accomplishments so far.

Fran Dunphy (Temple) - After the Owls leading scorer, Dionte Christmas, graduated from school last year, many thought that Temple would take a step back.  However, we’ve learned that you don’t take steps backward with Fran Dunphy as your head coach.  What a remarkable job he’s done with this team and he’s proved it with an overall regular season record of 26-5 and big wins over Virginia Tech, Villanova and Xavier.  The Owls also have zero bad losses on their resume, which means they’re taking on the personality of their head coach…which is showing up to work every day. 

 

“Up” (teams on the rise and moving in the right direction)

 

West Virginia (24-6, 13-5 Big East) - The Mountaineers finally got what they needed on Saturday.  A road win against a really good opponent.  They went up to Philadelphia and knocked off one of the better teams in the country in Villanova.  What this win does is it keeps West Virginia’s hopes alive for a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament.  If West Virginia goes on and wins the Big East tournament, they could be the team to fill that coveted fourth #1 seed slot.

Baylor (23-6, 11-5 Big 12) - The Baylor Bears have won 7 of their last 8 games and ended up getting the 3 seed in the Big 12 tournament.  This really has been a team who has continually been on the rise since, well, the season started.  They have one questionable loss on their resume (at Colorado), but winning on the road in conference is never an easy task so we can’t kill them for that.

Washington (21-9, 11-7 Pac 10) - Yes, you read that right.  I am finally mentioning a team from the Pac-10.  The Huskies have won 5 of their last 6 games and find themselves in the mix for an NCAA bid.  In reality, this team shouldn’t be on the bubble, but since the nation’s bubble is so bad Washington gets credit almost by default.  They are not beating anybody great, but they do have solid wins over Texas A&M, Cal and Arizona State.  I like the fact that they were able to balance out their success from non conference play to conference play.  I still think Washington needs to make a deep run into the Pac-10 tourney to remain in the conversation.

 

“Up in the Air” (teams who need a prayer for a bid)

Rhode Island (21-8, 9-7 A-10) - The Rams seemed to be getting back on track when they beat Charlotte in a pivotal game earlier in the week however, after taking one step forward they took two steps back when they lost at UMass on Saturday.  Their RPI is around 40 right now and they are in major trouble of obtaining an at large bid.  I believe they will now need to make the A-10 conference tournament finals if they want to be re-considered for a bid.  Doing so, would mean that they beat Temple, and that of course, would be huge.  The bubble is so bad that by getting to the finals just might do the trick…no guarantees though.

San Diego State (20-8, 11-5 MWC) - The Aztecs find themselves in an almost identical situation as they did a year ago.  In fact last year at this point their record was 21-9, 11-5 MWC and had an RPI of 34 and a strength of schedule of 40.  The only difference this year is that their strength of schedule is closer to 70.  Last year?  Well, they were one of the 1st teams to miss out on the Big Dance.  Personally, I thought they should have been in.  I really believe that this team needs to make it to the conference tournament finals to have a real shot.  They have good wins this year already over New Mexico and UNLV and getting to the finals of the MWC tourney would mean that they beat New Mexico for a 2nd time.  Doing this would be huge.  If not, all San Diego State can do is pray for a bid.

Memphis (23-8, 13-3 C-USA) - Many people out there feel that right now the Tigers would be in the field of 65.  They might be right, but only by default.  Please tell me what Memphis did in non conference play?  Sure.  They beat absolutely nobody and lost to UMass.  Very unimpressive.  What have they done in conference play?  They beat UAB at home and on the road.  These are two good wins, but are these the two wins that carry them to an NCAA bid?  Not in my book.  First of all, UAB right now is on the outside looking in.  Maybe if Memphis makes it to the Conference USA finals will they have a shot (this would mean that they’d be beating UAB for a 3rd time).  Any other year I would say that this team has no chance for an at-large bid, but because the bubble is sooooo bad this year, they remain in the conversation.  I wouldn’t be able to sleep well, however, knowing my fate was “up in the air.”

 

My last 4 teams in:  Illinois, San Diego St, South Florida, Washington

My first 4 teams out:  Ole Miss, Memphis, Seton Hall, Rhode Island

 

CLICK HERE TO VIEW MY FACTS & BRACKS

With just 9 days to go until Selection Sunday, here is an abbreviated version of my updated NCAA tournament projections…you can also click here to view the full detailed FACTS & BRACKS

 

1 Seeds: Syracuse, Kansas, Kentucky, Villanova

2 Seeds: Kansas State, Duke, West Virginia, Ohio State

3 Seeds: New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Vanderbilt

4 Seeds: Michigan State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Baylor

5 Seeds: Maryland, Wisconsin, Georgetown, Temple

6 Seeds: Xavier, Butler, BYU, Texas

7 Seeds: Richmond, Gonzaga, Missouri, Clemson

8 Seeds: Florida State, Oklahoma State, Wake Forest, Marquette

9 Seeds: Georgia Tech, UNLV, Northern Iowa, Louisville

10 Seeds: Illinois, Florida, California, UTEP

11 Seeds: Utah State, Old Dominion, Notre Dame, San Diego State

12 Seeds: Virginia Tech, Saint Mary’s(CA), Siena, Cornell

13 Seeds: Rhode Island, Mississippi, Kent State, Murray State

14 Seeds: Oakland, Wofford, Weber State, Sam Houston State

15 Seeds: UC Santa Barbara, Morgan State, Coastal Carolina, Troy

16 Seeds: Jacksonville, Stony Brook, Quinnipiac, Lehigh, Jackson State

 

Last 4 teams in: Virginia Tech, Saint Mary’s(CA), Rhode Island, Mississippi

 

First 9 teams out: Dayton, UConn, Memphis, UAB, Arizona State, Charlotte, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Mississippi State 

 

Selection Sunday is just around the corner and there still seems to be zero separation among all of these bubble teams.  Can somebody start winning consistently?  Please?

Click here to view my FACTS & BRACKS

 

 

Ahhh….March is here!  And with March comes the greatest single tournament in all of sports…the NCAA Tournament.  Just even thinking about the term “NCAA Tournament” gets me all giddy inside.  Conference tournaments are about to get underway this week and the “survive and advance” mentality begins to arrive for many teams.  So much can still happen in so little time and one single loss from here on out could very well cost a team an NCAA bid. 

Which teams are improving?  Which teams are melting?  Who’s the middie gettin’ giddy?  Who’s the power goin’ sour?  And who has a fear of those eight legged insects?  FACTS & BRACKS lets you know anything your heart desires… 

Remember to scroll to the bottom of this blog or click anywhere you see “FACTS & BRACKS” in order to view my NCAA tournament projections…

 

The “Let’s Goooo” Team of the Week (team who helped itself the most this week):  Notre Dame.  Many, including myself, thought the Fighting Irish’s season was over when Luke Harangody went down with an injury.  Since Harangody’s injury at Seton Hall 2 1/2 weeks ago, Notre Dame lost to St. John’s at home by 1, lost at Louisville in double overtime by 2, beat Pittsburgh at home and now, beat Georgetown on the road.  The biggest thing Notre Dame was missing from their resume was a really good road win.  Well, they got that now.  Georgetown’s Austin Freeman was battling a stomach virus and clearly was nowhere near 100%, but Notre Dame was down a man too so we shouldn’t really feel too bad for the Hoyas.  With this win, the Fighting Irish are now a major contendor for an NCAA tournament at-large bid.  They close out the season at home against UConn and then on the road at Marquette.  Getting at least a split in those two games are necessary for Notre Dame’s chances to get into the NCAA’s because their wins aren’t good enough for them to finish under .500 and still get in.  Before everyone starts jumping on the Notre Dame bandwagon, let’s keep in mind that they still have bad losses to Loyola Marymount, at Rutgers and St. John’s.  Their computer numbers are still a bit shaky, but getting this win at Georgetown is a great mark to put on a resume that, well frankly, needed it.  Notre Dame’s RPI went from 80 to 68 after their wonderful week.  They have anchored their way into my field this week as a 12 seed.

 

The “What Are We Doing?” Team of the Week (team who hurt itself the most this past week):  Rhode Island.  The Rams of Rhode Island had to be thinking to themselves, “what are we doing?” after their loss @ St. Bonaventure on Saturday.  Rhode Island has now lost 4 of their last 5 games with their lone win coming against another set of Rams in Fordham.  URI has quality wins over Oklahoma State and @ Dayton, but right now I don’t even have Dayton in my field so suddenly their resume is looking a bit empty.  They have a must win game at home against Charlotte on Wednesday.  They then end the regular season at UMass in another game in which they cannot afford to lose.  Not only does Rhode Island need these wins, but they will need to make a deep run now in the A-10 tourney to have a shot at getting a bid.  Doesn’t it seem like every year Rhode Island gets off to ridiculous starts record wise and then folds late in the season? 

 

“Why Must We Wait?” asks Mississippi State.  People need to calm down with saying the Bulldogs belong in the Big Dance.  They seem to have the pieces, but with an RPI still in the 50’s, a strength of schedule over 100 and a lone Top 50 RPI win against a CAA team in Old Dominion, by no means is Mississippi State on the better side of the bubble right now.  However, you guys still have opportunities to get there.  First and foremost, you have to win at Auburn on Wednesday.  Then, you MUST beat Tennessee at home this weekend in your final game of the regular season.  Yes, Tennessee has beaten arguably the two best teams in college basketball in Kansas and Kentucky, but the Volunteers won both those games at home and have yet to beat an NCAA tournament caliber team on the road ALL SEASON.  Going 10-6 in the SEC West just won’t cut it this year.  I currently have the Bulldogs as my 6th team out of the field (this goes to show you how bad the field is this year).  So, Mississippi State, win both games this week and then, yes, you will be a serious contendor for an at-large bid.  Will you be a lock?  No.  Then comes the SEC tournament where you will have to prove yourself once again.  Good luck.    

 

“We’re Flying Under the Radar, Yet Racking Up those WINS…Who Are We?  We are…the Maryland TERRApins.”  Is it just me or is nobody out there really talking about Maryland?  The Terps had a very solid week beating Clemson at home as well as winning at Virginia Tech in double overtime.  Maryland is now 20-7 overall and 11-3 in the ACC and just a game back of Duke for first place.  Maryland’s next opponent?  Yup, you guessed it, Duke!  If they can beat the Blue Devils at home then I believe they will start receiving the respect they deserve.  Maryland doesn’t have any out of this world great wins, but they have been strolling along piling up the victories over the last few weeks.  They currently have won 5 in a row and 7 of their last 8 overall.  Maryland’s only questionable loss on the season came a couple months ago when they ran into a hot William & Mary team at home.  Other than that, their L’s have come to bubble worthy teams or better.  Maryland’s RPI jumped from 36 to 24 this last week and now sit as a solid 6 seed in my latest projections.  I’m not saying Maryland is a Final Four contender, but I am saying that they could be a sleeper team come tournament time and have the possibility of making a considerable run if people continue to not pay attention to them. 

 

The “Middie Who’s Gettin’ Giddy” (mid-major team on the rise):  Saint Mary’s (CA).  The Gaels are getting giddy not because they beat a top 25 team or clinched 1st place in the WCC because they didn’t.  They’re excited because they are remaining in the mix for an NCAA bid when, in reality, they shouldn’t be.  Their biggest win of the year was at Utah State, and the Aggies have not lost a game since January 4th.  St. Mary’s next best win was against San Diego State, and the Aztecs have won 6 of their last 8 with their two losses coming to two top 20 teams on the road in New Mexico and BYU.  St. Mary’s also remains alive because the bubble is the weakest it’s ever been.  I feel like I say that every year, but this year really is the worst.  When it’s all said and done I don’t think the Gaels will punch their ticket because so many of these fringe bubble teams have mountains of opportunities, whereas St. Mary’s doesn’t have any.

 

The “Power Who’s Goin’ Sour” (high major team on the decline):  Purdue.  The Boilermakers are having a terrific season.  They didn’t go on a losing streak (not yet at least) and they really seemed to be hitting their stride the last few weeks turning themselves into a legitimate threat to reach the Final Four.  But, now, Purdue’s second leading scorer and second leading rebounder, Robbie Hummel, is out for the season after tearing his ACL at Minnesota on Wednesday night.  What a bad break for Hummel and the Boilermakers (pun intended although harsh).  Purdue was on its way to being a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament.  Now what?  Well, now we wait and see how they play in the last couple games of the regular season, as well as in the Big Ten tournament.  They just lost at home to Michigan State on Sunday and you can tell that not having Hummel in the lineup really hurts them.  It is evident that the Boilermakers tournament seed will take a hit.  The door is now open for teams like Duke, Kansas State, Villanova, West Virginia or Ohio State to take over that coveted fourth #1 seed.  It’s simple…the team that doesn’t lose will get it.

 

“Ahhh….Arachnophobia!”  People with Arachnophobia tend to feel uneasy in any area they believe could harbor spiders or that has visible signs of their presence, such as webs.  If arachnophobics see a spider they may not enter the general vicinity until they have overcome a panic attack that is often associated with their phobia.  In some extreme cases, even a picture or a realistic drawing of a spider can also evoke fear.  Clearly, this can cause a lot of trauma.  I’m sure you know someone who has it.  Heck, my younger brother has it.  But, will NCAA tournament teams have it in a couple weeks?  They very well might because the Richmond SPIDERS seem to be a good candidate sleeper team to make a run in the tourney.  Before losing in double overtime at Xavier on Sunday, the Spiders ripped off 8 victories in a row in A-10 play.  They have quality wins this year over Missouri, Mississippi State, Old Dominion, Florida, Temple & Rhode Island.  They’ve shown they can beat power conference teams and their style of play really should be an advantage for them in a tournament setting.

 

Most Intriguing High Major Game This Week?  UConn @ Notre Dame on Wednesday.  This essentially could be a play-out game for the NCAA tournament.  I don’t believe the team that loses this will be officially done, but they will put themselves on the brink of elimination.  This game is probably more important for UConn because a loss here guarantees themselves finishing under .500 in conference play.  After their loss to Louisville, UConn really needs to win their last 2 games of the regular season at Notre Dame and at South Florida.  Doing so, would lock them up a bid.  Notre Dame finishes up the season at Marquette, so even if they lose to UConn they will have a must win game at the Golden Eagles to keep their hopes alive.  Both these teams are also vying for a top 8 seed in the Big East tournament which would give them a bye in the 1st round.  This should be a good one.

Another great game this week is Kansas State at Kansas.  This will be an all out money game for the Wildcats because a win very well puts them in the mix for a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

 

Most Intriguing Non High Major Game This Week?  Charlotte at Rhode Island on Wednesday.  The loser of this game very well could be done.  URI has the better RPI, but the 49ers have the better overall wins.  Neither team can afford another loss on their shaky resume.  The winner of this game stays alive for another day.

 

My Four #1 Seeds are:  Syracuse, Kansas, Kentucky, Duke

Last 6 teams in?  Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, UAB, St. Mary’s (CA), San Diego State, Connecticut 

First 6 teams out?  Dayton, Rhode Island, Minnesota, Mississippi, Charlotte, Mississippi State 

 

Click here to view my FACTS & BRACKS for the entire rundown of my NCAA projections if the season ended today

 

We are now into the final week of February and if there’s one thing we’ve learned it’s that the bubble is very weak.  It’s about time for these so called fringe teams to start winning and separating themselves from the pack.  It’s hard enough to figure out which 65 teams should get in this year, so yeah, let’s just expand the tournament to 96 teams.  Yes, that’s my sarcasm speaking.  Remember to click on my FACTS & BRACKS link here or at the bottom of this blog to view my projections. 

 

The “Let’s Goooo” Team of the Week (Team who impressed the most this week):  Kentucky.  Many thought the Wildcats were bound to lose a game this week as they had to travel to Starkville to take on Mississippi State and Nashville to go up against the Commodores of Vanderbilt.  Well, Kentucky (26-1, 11-1 SEC) ran into some trouble as it took them overtime to beat Mississippi State and a missed runner in the lane at the buzzer by Vanderbilt which would have forced overtime.  The Wildcats held the Commodores to shooting a measley 2-20 from 3, yet still only won the game by just 2 points.  Nonetheless, Kentucky won both of these road matchups in two tough environments and improved their record to 26-1 overall.  They currently remain as a projected #1 seed in my latest Facts & Bracks.  There only appears to be one game left on Kentucky’s regular season schedule that they may lose and that is their game at Tennessee on Saturday.   

 

The “What Are We Doing?” Team of the Week (Team who hurt itself the most this past week):  Charlotte.  The 49ers were a team that was riding high less than two weeks ago.  Now, they find themselves in danger of not being invited to the Big Dance.  If you’re going to lose to other NCAA contendors in the league (i.e. Dayton, Xavier) then I have no problem with that.  If you’re going to lose games to non contendors, such as they did this week against Duquesne, I will notice it but it’s not the end of the world…unless, of course, that loss came on your home turf, which it did.  That is just plain unacceptable.  We obviously know why this happend.  They played Duquesne at home on Wednesday, but knew in the back of their minds that their big game was on Saturday against Xavier.  So, clearly, they overlooked the Dukes…and then lost to the Musketeers anyway!  Charlotte is not a team who can afford to do this.  Their final two regular season games are at Rhode Island and at home against Richmond.  Big games.  However, before those two games they play St. Joe’s and at George Washington…remember 49ers, you play ST. JOE’S AND GW first, so don’t disregard them or you will get beat and badly crush your hopes for an NCAA bid.  Charlotte has dropped out of my field of 65, but since the bubble is so bad as it usually is, one solid week can put them right back in it.  The 49ers RPI saw the biggest drop of any team this week falling from 41 to 55.

 

The “Middie Who’s Gettin’ Giddy” Team of the Week (mid-major team who is on the rise):  Northern Iowa.  The Panthers got arguably the best Bracketbuster win on Friday with their victory over another mid-major bubble team Old Dominion.  Northern Iowa (24-3, 14-2 MVC) nearly led wire to wire and showed the country that they are for real and can win even without their star big man, Jordan Eglseder, who didn’t play for the second consecutive game due to a suspension caused by a DWI.  I questioned the Panthers resume before this game and didn’t really see them as a true lock for an at-large bid.  They had beaten high-major bottom dwellers which is good for a mid major team, but not overly impressive when trying to obtain an at-large bid.  This win against ODU was important for Northern Iowa because ODU is knocking on the door for an at-large bid.  Old Dominion won at Georgetown earlier in the year and proved that they could win away from the Constant Convocation Center.  The win put Northern Iowa’s RPI into the Top 20.  Watch out for Northern Iowa come tournament time…when a team has guys with eccentric last names like Farokhmanesh, Eglseder, Ahelegbe & O’Rear you know you want no part of them.

 

The “Power Who’s Goin’ Sour” Team of the Week (high major team on the decline):  Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons were coming off a stretch of 4 consecutive wins before last week began.  Three of those four games were at home and the one game that was on the road was at a struggling Virginia team and it took them overtime to win that one.  The two games they played this last week, of course, were on the road.  They lost at Virginia Tech, in a game where Wake led most of the way, and they then dropped one at last place NC State.  Some may say that it was no big deal because both games were on the road, but I believe that these game were, in fact, critical for Wake.  If they would have won both of these games they would have taken hold of 2nd place in the ACC, would have been just one game behind Duke and could have quite possibly been in the argument for a 2 seed in this weeks Facts & Bracks.  Instead, they fell back to the middle of the pack in the ACC and currently have 5 losses in a down year for the league.  The time has come for the nation to know if Wake Forest (18-7, 8-5 ACC) should be mentioned as one of the heavy hitters who can make a deep tourney run, or if they’re like last year, a team bounced in the 1st round as a 4 seed by Cleveland State.  I don’t believe the latter will happen again this year, but I am still waiting to find out how good this team really is.  I guess we will find out in the ACC tournament.

 

The “Opportunity Knocked But Nobody Answered” Teams of the Week (these teams had critical losses at inopportune times):

Siena.  The Saints (22-6, 15-1 MAAC) had a critical game at Butler on Saturday which may have catapulted them to an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament had they lost in the MAAC finals, but they failed to capitalize.  Butler extended their nation leading win streak to 17 games, and they did so without starter Willie Veasley (10.0 ppg), who didn’t play due to a sprained knee.  It is now pretty clear that the Saints need to win the MAAC tournament in order to get into the NCAA tournament.  Siena has zero quality wins on their resume and now have no more opportunities to pick one up.  If Siena is fortunate enough to win the MAAC tourney, they still could end up getting a solid seed.  Remember, last year, they didn’t have any enormous wins either and were still able to get a 9 seed in the NCAA tourney.  I’m not saying that’s going to happen again because last year they finished with an RPI of 18 and so far this year they’re currently in the 30’s, but a top 11 seed is still obtainable.

Old Dominion:  In my opinion, the Monarchs could have all but wrapped up an at-large bid with a win at Northern Iowa.  Winning on the road in my book counts for a lot because it shows that a team can keep it’s composure in a harsh environment.  They failed to do so, but losing to the Panthers does not kill them and doesn’t end their hopes by any means.  ODU (21-8, 13-3 CAA) still has that victory at Georgetown which is monumental.  However, ODU has put themselves in a position where they may need to make the CAA tournament championship game in order to get a real good look for a bid. 

William & Mary:  The Tribe really didn’t have anything to gain from their Bracketbuster game @ Iona.  They really couldn’t afford a loss though.  Not only did W&M lose, but they were dismantled by the Gaels.  It was a bad weekend for the CAA with ODU and W&M losing and doesn’t help their case for being a multiple bid league.  William & Mary’s RPI did not take a huge hit however, as they are still hovering around the 50 mark.  Their non conference wins vs Richmond, @ Maryland and @ Wake Forest are still big for them which is why they are not completely out of the discussion.  It’s looking like William & Mary (18-8, 11-5 CAA), as well, will need to make the CAA tournament finals in order to receive a serious look from the selection committee.

South Florida:  A disastrous loss at home on Saturday for the Bulls (16-10, 6-8 Big East) to St. John’s.  I classify this as an “opportunity” game because every game South Florida plays they have plenty to gain.  The loss puts them 2 games under .500 in the Big East with no wiggle room to spare now.  They must win the rest of their conference games now.  And, yes, that includes their game at Villanova too.  The loss to St. John’s may have been the nail in the coffin for South Florida.  That being said, who would’ve thought before the season that South Florida would be disappointed to be 6-8 in the league?  Probably no one.

 

The “Yes We’re a State, We Want Some More Respect and We’re the Lobos so Please, Stop With All the Low-Blows” Team of the Week:  There’s only one team who this award can go to and of course that’s the New Mexico Lobos (25-3, 11-2 MWC) who sport a nifty top 10 RPI and play in the tough Mountain West Conference.  Nobody knows that much about Coach Steve Alford’s Lobos because we just don’t get to see them on television enough.  Well, this team has a superb overall record and many believe it’s nothing that special since they’re beating up on bad teams.  But, that’s where they’re wrong because they’re not beating up on bad teams.  New Mexico has wins vs California, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Dayton, BYU, San Diego State and at UNLV.  This resume is a lot better than a good amount of high majors.  The Lobos have been tested and are deserving of a very good NCAA tournament seed should they finish out the season strong.  New Mexico has a major test coming up on Saturday at conference for BYU.  BYU has won 34 of their last 35 conference home games.  So, if the Lobos can manufacture a W at Brigham Young, I would be very impressed…as should you!

 

The “Conference Crew Who’s Feelin’ Mighty Blue and Slowly Changin’ my View” League of the Weekend:  The CAA.  The Colonial Athletic Association went a combined 3-9 in Bracketbuster play this weekend.  Ouch.  Their conference RPI now sits at 12.  What bothered me the most was that the top 4 teams in this league (Old Dominion, William & Mary, Northeastern & George Mason) all lost.  Before this weekend, I thought this conference had a very good chance to be a multiple bid league for the NCAA tournament.  Now?  I’m really not so sure.  William & Mary and Old Dominion are the two teams with the best non conference resumes in the CAA and really could have boosted their causes with W’s.  The scary part about this weekend is that when the Selection Committee is trying to figure out the last few teams who should get into the NCAA tournament and they arrive at a CAA team, will they refer back to the dismal Bracketbuster weekend they had or will they merely just see it as a minor blip on the radar?  The bottom line is that this is a weekend the Colonial Athletic Association will want to forget…however, I don’t believe this will be something the Selection Committee will bypass.

 

The “Biggie Who’s Gettin’ Jiggy” Team of the Week (high major squad on the rise):  UConn.  The Huskies underachieving season was about to be all but over in disappointing fashion…that is before their game at Villanova last week.  UConn went into the Wachovia Center, shocked the Wildcats and brought their conference record to 5-8 in the Big East.  They really have no room for error anymore after the Huskies inauspicious start in the 1st 12 games of Big East play.  That’s why their game at Rutgers on Saturday was so important for them.  One slip up to a lower tier Big East opponent would have been devastating for UConn.  Rutgers was a hot team and had won 4 of their last 5 Big East games and playing at a sold out RAC is no easy task.  But, the Huskies were up for the challenge and easily took care of the Scarlet Knights to improve their conference record to 6-8.  Even more important is their RPI went from 61 to 45 in the last week.  UConn is back in the thick of things for an at-large bid and have two huge opportunity games this week at home against West Virginia and Louisville.  Winning both of these games will surely put them in the field in next week’s Facts & Bracks.  It’s vital that this team finishes conference play at the .500 mark or better to give them the best opportunity for an NCAA bid.  So, the Huskies are “jiggy” right now, but can they remain “jiggy?” Or was this last week of victories just a fraud?  I believe this team is for real…the question is, do they want to be?

 

Most Intriguing Major Conference Game this Week?  Villanova @ Syracuse on Saturday.  This game may not only determine which of these teams gets the top seed in the Big East Tournament, but it also may play a large role in deciding who gets that coveted #1 seed in the NCAA tournament.  Right now, Syracuse has the upper hand, but a win on the road by the Wildcats could change a lot.  Villanova has proved this year that they can win in tough environments…just ask Marquette, Louisville and West Virginia.  Plus, the Orange only two losses on the year came at home at the Carrier Dome.  I believe that this will be a great game that comes down to the wire.  Both of these teams are pretty much locked in for a double bye in the Big East Tourney and I have a feeling that we will see these two teams play each other again there…and perhaps again in the NCAA’s.

 

Most Intriguing Non-Major Conference Game this Week?  New Mexico @ BYU on Saturday.  The Mountain West Conference is the 7th best conference in the country this year, and these two teams will battle it out for 1st place this game.  New Mexico has the more impressive resume, but the Cougars of BYU do have the ever so important home court advantage.  New Mexico and BYU are a combined 49-6 this year against Division 1 opponents.  New Mexico already beat BYU at home this year…is it now BYU’s turn to return the favor? 

 

An NCAA Bid in Sight?  If the Cornell Big Red beat Princeton and Penn this weekend they will be the first team this year to officially clinch an NCAA tournament berth.

 

My last 4 teams in?  UAB, Old Dominion, Dayton, St. Mary’s (CA)

My first 4 teams out?  San Diego State, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Connecticut

 

The clock is starting to tick on some of these bubble teams, but since the bubble is so down this year ANYONE who can put together a string of victories down the stretch will have a good chance at breaking away from the rest of the pack.  The regular season is quickly coming to an end…as are many of these bubble teams chances. 

CLICK HERE TO VIEW THIS WEEK’S FACTS & BRACKS

Here is an analysis of every Big East team that is on the borderline for an NCAA tournament berth and what they need to do in the remainder of their games to get a bid…

NCAA Sure Fire Locks (these teams can lose out and still get in):  Syracuse, Villanova

NCAA Locks (these teams don’t need any more resume building wins…JUST DON’T LOSE OUT!): West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Georgetown

And now, onto the bubbles…

 

Marquette (16-8, 7-5 Big East)  Current Place in Big East: t-6th  Current Projected NCAA seed: 11  RPI: 59  SOS: 57

Key Wins: *Xavier, Georgetown, @ UConn

Bad L’s: NC State, @ Depaul

Remaining Schedule: Pittsburgh, @ Cincinnati, @ St. John’s, @ Seton Hall, Louisville, Notre Dame

What they need to do to get into the NCAA tournament:  To assure themselves a bid, the Golden Eagles need to go 4-2 down the stretch.  If they take care of business at home by winning them all or even just 2 out of 3 and win just 1 or 2 of their final 3 road games then this team will surely be dancing.  If Marquette goes 3-3 in their final six they will still have a shot as long as they don’t lose their first game in the Big East tournament.

Prediction:  Marquette will finish 3-3 and win their first round Big East tournament game.  When it’s all said and done, I do believe Marquette will be included in the field of 65.

 

Louisville (16-9, 7-5 Big East)    Current place in Big East: t-6th   Current Projected NCAA tournament seed: 11  RPI: 30  SOS: 4

Key Wins: @ Syracuse

Bad L’s: Western Carolina

Remaining Schedule:  Notre Dame, @ Depaul, Georgetown, @ UConn, @ Marquette, Syracuse

What they need to do to get into the NCAA tournament:  Louisville’s win at Syracuse was mammouth.  It was huge because they really did not have ANY great wins to hang their hats on before winning AT arguably the best team in the country.  They lost to St. John’s last week which took them a step back, but by winning at the Cuse they took 3 steps forward.  They are no lock yet, however, and must continue to add to their resume.  So, in their final six games, they start off with Notre Dame minus the Gody, as Luke Harangody most likely will not play.  They obviously should win this game.  Then they go to Depaul. Win.  This would put them at 9-5 in the conference, but still not a lock as they really need to add another marquee victory to their resume.  Fortunately for them, they have opportunities.  Their final 4 games are against all potential NCAA tournament teams.  If Lousville goes 2-2 in their final 4 Big East games, then they would have locked up a bid.  1-3?  They wouldn’t be out of the woods just yet.  They have really good computer numbers in their favor as they have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation.

Prediction:  I think Louisville will win their next 2 games to go to 9-5 in the Big East.  Then, it gets tricky.  They will need to steal a game either @ Marquette or @ UConn and beat either Georgetown or Syracuse at home.  Remember, Louisville easily could have won earlier in Big East play @ Pittsburgh and @ West Virginia if it weren’t for them blowing the lead in the waning minutes of each contest.  I think the Cardinals will go 4-2 down the stretch, 3-3 at worst, and will ultimately lock up an at-large bid.

 

Cincinnati (15-10, 6-7 Big East)   Current Place in Big East:  t-8th   Current Projected NCAA tournament seed:  OUT  RPI: 52  SOS: 14

Key Wins: *Vanderbilt, *Maryland, @ UConn

Bad L’s: @ St. John’s

Remaining Schedule: Marquette, Depaul, @ West Virginia, Villanova, @ Georgetown

What they need to do to get into the NCAA tournament:  Obviously, going 4-1 down the stretch would assure Cincinnati of an NCAA bid because that would have meant that they either won @ WVU or @ G’town or beat Villanova.  Adding one more great win to their resume would be huge for them.  Their latest loss at South Florida is detrimental, but it does not bury them.  They need to take care of business in their next two games at home vs Marquette and Depaul and then find a way to win either @ West Virginia, at home against Villanova or @ Georgetown.  Doing this would be huge for their resume because they are still lacking that signature conference win.   If the Bearcats go 3-2 in their final five games I do believe that they will have a pretty good shot at a bid as well.  The Bearcats now MUST beat a Top 20 school in order to go dancing. 

Prediction:  I believe that Cincinnati will go 2-3 in their final five games to finish at 8-10 in the Big East.  They most likely will not win at West Virginia, so their game at home against Villanova and their game at Georgetown could very well be the deciding games that control the Bearcats tournament hopes.  I’m not shocked that Cincy lost at South Florida, but I am pretty surprised in the manner they lost.  Can they beat Nova or win at G’town?  If they’re an NCAA tournament team then they will.  Personally, I don’t think it will happen.

 

Notre Dame (17-9, 6-7 Big East)  Current Place in Big East: 9th  Current Projected NCAA tournament seed: Out  RPI: 79  SOS: 62

Key Wins: West Virginia

Bad L’s: Loyola Marymount, @ Rutgers, St. John’s

Remaining Schedule: @ Louisville, Pittsburgh, @ Georgetown, UConn, @ Marquette

What they need to do to get into the NCAA tournament:  The Fighting Irish are climbing an uphill battle.  They are at the point where they have no more room for error.  The bright side is that every one of their remaining games are against potential NCAA tournament teams, which means the opportunities do lie ahead for them.  The downside is that Luke Harangody probably will not play @ Louisville and may not be 100% the rest of the way.  Notre Dame will have to go at least 3-3 down the stretch to have any shot at obtaining an at-large bid.  Even with 3 W’s they will need to do some damage in the Big East tournament to keep their slim hopes alive.

Prediction:  At best, I see Notre Dame going 2-4 down the wire.  This will put them at 8-10 in the Big East and will spell NIT for them.  When Notre Dame lost Luke Harangody to injury at Seton Hall, that wasn’t all they lost.  They also lost pretty much any chance of making the NCAA tournament.  Mike Brey said all year that their season would hinge on the Irish “riding the ‘Gody.”  Well, they can continue to ride him…all the way to the NIT.

 

South Florida (16-9, 6-7 Big East)  Current Place in Big East: t-8th   Current Projected NCAA tournament seed: Out  RPI: 55  SOS: 36

Key Wins: Pittsburgh, @ Georgetown

Bad L’s: Central Michigan

Remaining Schedule: St. John’s, @ Villanova, Providence, @ Depaul, UConn

What they need to do to make the NCAA tournament:  South Florida will probably need to go 4-1 down the stretch since they pretty much have one of the easiest remaining schedules of any team.  Going 3-2 could do the trick as well, especially if one of those three wins is @ Villanova.  They don’t have much to gain from their other games, except from potentially their last game of the season against UConn, which may end up being an elimination game for both teams.

Prediction:  South Florida has been on an incredible run in the Big East, but I don’t think they will be able to sneak up on teams any more.  Their win over Cincinnati ended the Bulls mini two game slide.  I predict that they finish off the year going 2-3, but they will have nothing to sulk about because that will cap off a tremendous year.  Going to the NIT will be a critical and necessary step for this team moving forward.

 

Seton Hall (14-9, 5-7 Big East) Current Place in the Big East: t-10th  Current Projected NCAA tourn. seed: Out  RPI: 57  SOS: 18

Key Wins: Pittsburgh

Bad L’s: None (@ South Florida, maybe)

Remaning Schedule: @ St. John’s, @ West Virginia, Rutgers, Marquette, @ Rutgers, Providence

What they need to do to make the NCAA tournament:  The Pirates may have the easiest remaining schedule left of any Big East team.  However, that doesn’t mean they should be jumping for joy.  If they want any chance at making the NCAA tournament they really need to go 5-1 down the stretch.  Is it possible? Yes.  Even if they do this, they will also need to root for Louisville and Cincinnati to play well too as those wins will look a lot better if those two teams finish out the season strong.  Seton Hall’s loss a few weeks ago @ South Florida might have been their undoing because a win there would have given the Pirates a pretty good opportunity at finishing the Big East with 11 wins.  And if you win 11 games in the Big East conference, the best conference in the country, you’ll be dancing.

Prediction:  I believe Seton Hall will finish down the stretch with a 4-2 mark.  It would put them at 9-9 in Big East play and they would need to make a deep run into the Big East tournament in order to achieve an NCAA bid.  That will surely be difficult, but in the end, it would be a very nice year for the improving Pirates.  If they would have won one of their first two Big East games against either Syracuse or West Virginia (as both of these contests came down to the wire) they would be in prime position to be an NCAA tournament team. 

 

Connecticut (15-11, 5-8 Big East) Current Place in the Big East: 12th  Current Projected NCAA tourn. seed: Out  RPI: 50  SOS: 1

Key Wins: Texas, @ Villanova

Bad L’s: @ Michigan, @ Providence

Remaining Schedule: @ Rutgers, West Virginia, Louisville, @ Notre Dame, @ South Florida

What they need to do to make the NCAA tournament:  It’s pretty important for any team who wants to make the NCAA tournament to finish conference play with at least a .500 record.  UConn has been very shaky of late, but their win at Villanova was enormous and was really the win they needed to survive for a bid.  With Kemba Walker, Jerome Dyson and Stanley Robinson, the Huskies have as good a 1-2-3 punch than most teams in the Big East.  They’ve been underacheiving and finally played up to their potential in the win at Villanova.  The question now becomes, can UConn get it done against the bottom tier teams in the Big East?  They will have to or else THEY will become a bottom tier Big East team.  If UConn plays the way they’re capable of playing, I don’t see any reason why they wouldn’t be able to run the table with their remaining games.  Running the table would assure the Huskies of an NCAA tournament bid.  However, going 5-1 the rest of the way may also be good enough as long as they don’t have a 1st round exit in the Big East tournament.

Prediction:  It is so hard to predict this team.  Will UConn play the rest of the way like they did in their game @ Villanova?  Or will they go the route of playing like they did at home against Cincinnati where they put up just 48 points?  I have a feeling that the most underacheving team in the Big East will, in fact, get it done and punch their ticket for the NCAA tournament.  This is a scary team and for the Huskies sake, they are hoping that the best is yet to come.

 

 

So, wrapping things up, I ultimately believe that the Big East will end up with Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville & Connecticut in the NCAA tournament.  I won’t entirely count out Cincinnati either because if UConn continues to impress, the Bearcats will be able to say that they beat the Huskies not once, but twice!  It really comes down to consistency and each of the so called bubble teams above haven’t displayed it yet.  The last few weeks of Big East play will be very interesting and the Big East tournament will be awesome, just as it always is.  Playing in the NCAA tournament is a privilege, not a right, and if these teams want to be included in the field this year then they will cut out all the excuses and just win basketball games.

Another week of Facts & Bracks is here and we are now less than four weeks away from Selection Sunday.  Things are starting to heat up and teams are continuing to move up and down the rankings.  It’s time for teams to start separating themselves. 

There are currently 65 teams who are in the NCAA tournament and I have trouble, as we all do every year, of figuring out who the last few teams in and out are.  This is why it’s absolutely mind boggling to think that the NCAA is actually considering expanding the tournament to 96 teams.  The tournament will lose a bit of its luster and probably will no longer be considered by me as one of the greatest things ever.  So, hopefully that doesn’t happen.  

Remember to click on the FACTS & BRACKS link at the end of this blog to view, of course, my Facts & Bracks.  

The “Let’s Goooo” Team of the Week (team who helped itself the most this past week):  Xavier.  The Musketeers only had one game this week, but what a big game it was for the NCAA tournament hopes.  They went down to Gainesville, FL to take on a Florida Gator team who needed a solid win just as badly as Xavier did.  Xavier failed to have any real quality road victories all season, and this one is one that probably makes them a lock for the tournament.  They sit at 8-2 in the very solid Atlantic-10 and as long as they beat the teams at the bottom of the league the rest of the way, this team will be dancing in March and they can thank their W over Florida as the reason.  A close second for this award goes to Illinois for winning @ Wisconsin this week.  The fact that they got slaughtered at home against Ohio State on Sunday made me unable to give them the “Let’s Goooo” award.  However, that win against the Badgers is HUGE for their NCAA tourney hopes and exactly what they needed. 

 

The “What Are We Doing?” Team of the Week (team who hurt itself the most this past week):  Easily St. Mary’s (CA).  The Gaels started the week in first place in the WCC and on the right side of the bubble, but ended the week with two losses and may have shattered their hopes of obtaining an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament.  Their losses this week, @ Gonzaga and @ Portland, were not horrific losses, but the fact was that they needed  to add some “meat and potatoes” to their resume and they failed to do so doesn’t bode well for them.  They won’t have any more opportunities this season to do so either as the only way they can get a win against perrenial WCC champ Gonzaga is in the conference tournament finals.  Of course if they win that game the Gaels would get the ever so coveted automatic bid.  This is now the second year in a row that St. Mary’s scheduled a weak non conference schedule, so they have no one to blame except themselves.  They only have two RPI Top 50 wins (San Diego State & @ Utah State) and really needed to beat Gonzaga once to receive serious consideration for a bid.  Maybe their only shot is if Utah State and San Diego State runs the table and wins their conference tourneys? 

 

The “Middie Who’s Gettin’ Giddy” Team of the Week (mid-major team who’s on the rise): Butler.  The Bulldogs are now 16-0 in the Horizon League and have won an astounding 15 games in a row.  They seem to do this year in and year out and I just think that it’s been pretty remarkable.  They are now an unbelievable 102-18 since the start of the 2006-2007 season.  And the crazy part is that in each of those seasons the Bulldogs NEVER went undefeated in conference play.  With just two conference games remaining (Illinois-Chicago and @ Valparaiso), Butler has a very realistic shot and finishing Horizon League play with a goose egg in the loss column.  Butler has non-conference wins @ Northwestern and home vs Ohio State and Xavier.  Ohio State and Xavier just happen to be two of the hottest teams in the country right now.  Now granted, they beat the Buckeyes without having star Evan Turner and the Musketeers on a questionable clock malfunction down the stretch, but hey, a win is a win.  As long as Butler doesn’t end the season losing four in a row (and there’s no reason to believe that will happen), then this team is a LOCK for the Big Dance with hopes of getting a pretty good seed.

 

The “Power Who’s Goin’ Sour” Team of the Week (high major team on the decline):  Georgia Tech.  First off, let me start by saying that the Yellow Jackets have a number of really good wins.  However, they lost @ Miami (FL) and @ Wake Forest this week and have now dropped three of their last four contests.  They are now 5-6 in the ACC and have fallen all the way to 8th place in the league.  They need to figure out a way to win away from home.  This team has so much talent and it really just seems as if they’re underacheiving.  That being said, one thing Georgia Tech did wisely was scheduling.  They had a challenging non conference slate and even played a Non-D1 team in late January instead of playing a bottom of the RPI team.  This is important because even with losing 3 of their last 4, the Yellow Jackets RPI remains in the Top 30.  This team isn’t really in danger of losing out an NCAA bid barring a complete collapse, but they really need to start playing with more consistency if they want any chance to make a deep run in March.

 

The “Opportunity Knocks?” Team of the Week (team who has the most to gain this week):  Siena.  Yes, the Saint Bernard’s (22-5, 15-1) just lost @ Niagara this week which really hurt.  However, opportunity knocks for them.  For having such a good season, Siena was rewarded by the Bracket Buster by being sent to Indianapolis to play @ Butler.  As mentioned earlier, Butler has the longest current win streak in college basketball and a win over those Bulldogs will give the Saints HOPE.  Their RPI remains in the Top 40 after the Niagara loss, and a win over Butler would get them into the Top 30.  So the question is, if Siena beats Butler and loses in the MAAC tournament finals do they have a shot at an at-large bid?  The answer is yes.  They will be squarely on the bubble and will have at the very least a chance.  If Siena loses at Butler, they can kiss their at large hopes goodbye.  They have zero resume building wins and although they have no bad L’s aside from the Niagara L, the Saints just won’t have enough gravy on their mashed potatoes to make them enjoyable to eat…or to warrant them an at-large bid.

 

Most Intriguing Major Conference game this week?  Purdue @ Ohio State on Wednesday.  Coming into this game the Boilermakers have won 7 in a row while the Buckeyes having a 6 game winning streak of their own.  Something has to give.  Both of these teams are beginning to hit their strides and this really should be an exciting matchup since both teams are trying to get first place in the Big Ten.  Ohio State is a darkhorse Final 4 candidate of mine and I’m very eager to see how this matchup pans out.  Another great conference game this week features Syracuse @ Georgetown.  Both of these teams are coming off bad L’s and are looking to wipe away their previous loss with a win here.   

Most Intriguing Non Major Conference game this week?  Sorry to repeat teams here but Siena @ Butler is by FAR the best mid-major conference game of the week.  Do the Saints have what it takes to win @ Hinkle Fieldhouse?  We will find out on Saturday.  Should be a doozy. 

Another great non major conference matchup will be Old Dominion @ Northern Iowa on Friday in another Bracketbuster game.  Northern Iowa suspended starting center Jordan Egleseder 3 games for a DWI and this will realy hurt their chances in this game.  ODU is in better shape for an at-large bid and a win on the road against a team that has only three losses would loom large for their chances for the NCAA tourney.  A win by UNI still may not be enough to get them in.  It sure wouldn’t hurt though.

My Four # 1 seeds are:  Kansas, Kentucky, Villanova, Syracuse

Which team’s RPI improved the most in the last week?  Louisville.  Even with the Cardinals loss @ St. John’s, their win over Syracuse was so big that it still improved their RPI from 44 to 31.  I cannot say enough how important this win was for Louisville.

Which team’s RPI decreased the most in the last week?  Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers RPI went from 61 to 82 in a disaster of a week which really killed their chances of getting an NCAA tournament at-large bid.

Last 4 teams in the Bracks are: Louisville, UAB, Virginia Tech, Florida

First 4 teams out of the Bracks are: Mississippi, Cincinnati, St. Mary’s (CA), San Diego State

# 1 RPI in the nation?  As usual, Kansas

#1 Strength of Schedule?  West Virginia

 

I had a hard time figuring out who the last few teams in should be.  Right now, I have UAB as one of my last teams in.  However, they are one more bad loss or even average loss away from not being able to get an at-large bid.  I put them in over Cincinnati because they, in fact, beat Cincinnati.  UAB is 2-0 against the RPI Top 50.  Their win over is Butler is what’s keeping them in for the time being.  I have Ole Miss out because they are just 1-4 against the RPI Top 50 and have really struggled lately.  San Diego State is creeping closer to a bid, but I really think they need a solid road victory to add to their resume.  They have the opportunity soon when they play @ BYU next week.  I also have a tough time putting them ahead of St. Mary’s as they played each other and San Diego State got trounced by the Gaels.  Bottom line, the bubble is weak as it is every year, so these teams need to continue to win or else someone else will pass them.

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